The population of the European Union, currently standing at 450.6 million people, is hovering near its highest level in recorded history. This is the central finding of a new report by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), which highlights the major challenges that demographic aging poses for European societies and economies. According to the report’s projections, the EU population is expected to continue growing marginally until 2029, when it is forecast to reach 453.3 million people. From that point onward, however, a slow but steady population decline will begin.
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By 2050, the EU population is estimated to fall to 445 million residents, while by the end of the century it is expected to shrink further to 398.8 million — a figure comparable to population levels recorded in Europe in the mid-1970s, according to the report.
Europeans are living longer than ever
At the same time, life expectancy across Europe continues to rise, reflecting significant advances in medicine, preventive care, and quality of life. In 2024, life expectancy in the European Union stood at 81.5 years, and projections indicate that by 2050, nearly one in three EU residents will be aged 65 or older. Today, that ratio stands at approximately one in five. By 2100, life expectancy is estimated to exceed 90 years for women and 86 years for men.
Furthermore, a child born in the European Union in 2023 is expected to live an average of 75.3 years free from serious health problems — a figure that reflects the continued improvement in healthy living conditions across the continent.
Economic consequences of an aging population
The European Commission warns that demographic shifts are creating significant challenges for member states. The gradual shrinking of the working-age population is expected to intensify labor shortages, increase pressure on public finances and pension systems, strain healthcare and social care services, and generate new challenges for education and territorial cohesion.
Despite these difficulties, demographic aging also opens up new development opportunities. The so-called “Silver Economy” — focused on the development of products and services tailored to older adults — encompasses everything from innovative healthcare and assisted living services to new technological applications that enhance independence and quality of life for seniors.
“Demographic change is transforming our societies, economies, and labor markets”
European Commissioner Dubravka Šuica emphasizes that rising life expectancy represents one of Europe’s greatest achievements. “We are living longer and healthier lives than ever before — one of our greatest successes. But demographic change is transforming our societies, economies, and labor markets, and we must act now to turn this transition into an opportunity,” she stated.
The European Commission considers boosting productivity and increasing employment participation to be essential prerequisites for addressing the effects of demographic decline. Currently, approximately 20% of working-age individuals are not participating in the labor market, while the employment gap between men and women continues to stand at 10 percentage points.
In addition, around eight million young people in the European Union are not in employment, education, or training.
The role of immigration
The report concludes that immigration will play an increasingly important role in shaping the EU’s demographic trajectory, as it helps cushion the effects of aging and workforce decline.
However, the report also clarifies that immigration alone is not sufficient to reverse Europe’s long-term demographic course — making it necessary to adopt a combination of policies aimed at strengthening employment, productivity, and social cohesion.
