A visible danger of new escalation in the war in Ukraine appears imminent, following claims by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) that Ukraine is preparing attacks against Russian territory with Latvia as its operational base. In a statement released Tuesday, the SVR alleged that Latvia is coordinating with Ukraine to launch drone attacks against Russian targets, citing an escalation of activities connected to Baltic countries and warning of “just punishment.”
The Russian intelligence service further claimed that “Ukrainian authorities seek to prove to their European supporters that the country maintains military capability and can continue to inflict damage on Russia’s economy.”
“The regime of V. Zelensky is determined by any means to prove to its ideological and economic patrons in Europe the preservation of the combat potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and their ability to cause damage to the Russian economy. Based on this, the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is preparing to unleash a series of new terrorist attacks in the rear areas of the Russian Federation,” the SVR stated.
SVR: Russia accuses Ukraine of planning attacks through Latvia
According to Moscow, Ukrainian forces are allegedly preparing a new wave of attacks on Russian rear areas, with a range beyond previously used air routes through Baltic airspace.
“According to information received, Kyiv does not intend to limit itself to using the air corridors provided to the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the Baltic countries. The launch of unmanned aircraft from the territory of these states is also planned. The calculation is that such tactics will significantly reduce flight time to targets and increase the effectiveness of terrorist attacks,” the statement read.
The SVR further claims that Latvia agreed to support the military operation despite concerns about potential retaliation. “Despite the Latvian side’s concerns about the possibility of becoming a target of retaliation from Moscow, Kyiv authorities convinced Riga to agree to the operation. The Ukrainians emphasized that it would be impossible to determine the exact launch location of the UAVs. (…) Soldiers of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces have already been sent to Latvia. They are located at the Latvian military bases ‘Adazi,’ ‘Selia,’ ‘Lielvarde,’ ‘Daugavpils,’ and ‘Jekabpils,'” it added.
The SVR warned that such actions could have consequences, noting that modern Russian intelligence systems are capable of detecting launch points.
“One can only express sympathy for the naivety of Latvian leaders. Modern intelligence tools make it possible to reliably determine the coordinates of UAV launch points. Reliable data can also be obtained by studying the debris of unmanned aircraft, as happened with Ukraine’s attempt to attack the Russian president’s residence in December last year. It is also worth recalling that the coordinates of decision-making centers on Latvian territory are known, and the country’s NATO membership will not protect terrorist accomplices from just punishment,” the SVR stated.
