Rapprochement efforts between the United States and Iran continue to tread on fragile ground, with both sides exchanging messages of optimism alongside stark warnings. Despite Donald Trump’s public assurances that progress is being made in talks over Iran’s nuclear program, the situation remains complex and riddled with uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Gulf states are watching developments with growing unease, fearing that a new deal could directly reshape the balance of power across the Middle East.
Iran: Negotiations press on amid difficulties
Talks between the two countries’ technical teams are advancing at a slow pace. Donald Trump appears convinced that discussions are moving toward an agreement imposing strict controls on Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iranian leadership insists it will not abandon its core defensive capabilities.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the country’s missiles are a fundamental deterrence tool, arguing that without them Iran would be left vulnerable to external attack. At the same time, Iranian officials are framing any potential agreement as a product of their own resilience — not as a result of pressure from Washington.
The Gulf states’ fears
The Arab monarchies of the Gulf are approaching these developments with considerable caution. For decades, they viewed the United States as their primary security guarantor. However, Donald Trump’s policy choices — both during his first and current term — have cast doubt on just how reliable that relationship remains.
The massive attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities in 2019 proved to be a turning point for many governments in the region. Despite American condemnations, several countries began questioning whether the US would intervene decisively in the event of a new crisis. Today, the prospect of a fresh deal with Iran is stirring even deeper concern.
The Strait of Hormuz and energy security
One of the most pressing issues centers on the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed agreement envisions an expanded role for Iran in overseeing commercial shipping through the waterway — a development that would directly affect Gulf states’ energy exports.
Tensions escalated further when Iran left open the possibility of imposing restrictions on vessel passage. Donald Trump responded swiftly, dismissing reports of tolls as false and warning that if Tehran’s assurances proved inaccurate, talks would be immediately suspended.
A new balance of power in the Middle East
The agreement is also accompanied by a $300 billion economic support plan for Iran — a development that is generating additional alarm among its neighbors. Many analysts believe that an influx of new resources could significantly amplify Tehran’s regional influence.
Despite their reservations, the Gulf states acknowledge that they have no strategic alliance of comparable weight to replace the one they hold with the United States. For this reason, they are working to maintain close ties with Washington while simultaneously exploring ways to strengthen their own defense capabilities and forge new regional partnerships.
Developments over the coming weeks are expected to determine whether the new US–Iran rapprochement will lead to greater stability or open a new chapter of uncertainty for the entire Middle East.
