According to Western experts and military officials, Deutsche Welle reports that the end of the Ukraine war is in sight. They believe that a de facto end to the war in Ukraine is approaching, as they stated when speaking to DW on the sidelines of the Kyiv Security Forum in late April. They attribute this assessment to the upcoming US midterm elections in November.
Due to the stalemate on the war front, experts have been speculating for weeks that Russian President Vladimir Putin might proceed with a new mobilization – as he did in the fall of 2022. Similar assessments come from Ukrainian military officials, whom Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently cited. However, Evelyn Farkas, head of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University, does not believe in a large-scale mobilization in Russia, pointing to problems in the Russian economy which, in her view, would prevent the Kremlin leader from such a decision, according to DW.
Despite tensions in the Persian Gulf, Kurt Volker sees Ukraine in an advantageous position. The former US Special Representative for Ukraine believes that its position is stronger today than before. In his view, Kyiv has significantly reduced its dependence on Western weapons, covering 60-70% of its needs without foreign aid. He even believes that Ukraine is in a position to continue the war against Russia even if the US stops weapons deliveries through Europeans to the Ukrainian armed forces.
Ukraine: Is the end of the war approaching?
The Ukrainian president recently stated that he expects increasing pressure from the American government by fall. President Trump wants Ukraine to accept Russian terms for a ceasefire, particularly the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kyiv-controlled part of Donbas. Evelyn Farkas is convinced that Ukraine can successfully withstand this pressure.
Evelyn Farkas places the end of the war with Iran before summer, estimating that the Strait of Hormuz will open and that the US, as Trump announced, could then pursue regime change in Cuba. Even with this scenario, however, she does not expect increased pressure on Kyiv. On the contrary, she notes, this could further weaken Russia as Cuba’s historic ally.
Both Evelyn Farkas and Kurt Volker believe that the US midterm elections will be a turning point. They estimate that the electoral result will weaken both President Trump and the Republican Party. “A negative result for Trump is enough to pressure the American government to continue supporting Ukraine and NATO,” emphasizes Evelyn Farkas.
The war is “difficult” to end on the battlefield, states Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone. According to the chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, the Russian army remains “strong” despite heavy losses. However, the economic situation could be one of the reasons that might eventually lead Moscow to a peace agreement.
The state of the Russian economy and the enormous losses at the front could force the Kremlin to end hostilities. “The situation in Russia has deteriorated significantly and continues to worsen,” emphasizes Kurt Volker, predicting that time is working against President Putin.
Experts disagree, however, on the timeline for a turning point. Kurt Volker places it within the current year, giving it a probability “above 50%.” Evelyn Farkas, on the other hand, believes that 2027 will be the year when “Ukrainians will emerge victorious” from this confrontation.
