A new rally is underway in global coffee prices, intensifying fears of another round of price increases, as worldwide stocks sit at critically low levels and uncertainty over supply adequacy continues to grow. At the center of the storm is Arabica coffee, whose futures contracts surged to a one-month high as markets grow increasingly concerned that shipments from Brazil — the world’s largest coffee producer — may not arrive in time. According to Reuters, the price of Arabica jumped 4.7%, reaching $3.0855 per pound, while intraday trading saw it touch $3.1130 — the highest level in the past month. On a weekly basis, gains stand at 7.5%, reflecting the intense nervousness gripping the market.
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Coffee stocks at the limit — approaching a 27-year low
The greatest source of concern for traders is the extremely limited availability of coffee stocks. According to ICE market data, certified coffee inventories stand at just 238,976 bags, remaining close to the 27-year low of 217,646 bags recorded the previous month. The critical question is whether new coffee supplies from Brazil will reach ICE warehouses before December contracts expire. If they do not, available stocks could remain at dangerously low levels, keeping upward pressure on prices firmly in place.
Brazil: El Niño threatens the country’s coffee production
Adding to the already strained market outlook is the weather factor. Markets are watching with growing concern the potential impact of El Niño, as the weather conditions associated with the phenomenon could significantly curtail Brazil’s coffee production in the coming year.
At the same time, the recent strengthening of the Brazilian real is another factor supporting international prices. A stronger currency can reduce the incentive for producers to sell their output on foreign markets, further tightening global supply.
Robusta prices also on the rise
The wave of price increases is not limited to Arabica. Robusta coffee futures also moved higher, posting a gain of 3.2%, with prices settling at $3,473 per tonne.
Meanwhile, in Vietnam — the world’s largest Robusta-producing country — harvesting of the new crop has already begun. Market participants estimate that this year’s production will remain roughly in line with last year’s levels, with no significant changes expected.
However, the outlook for the next period is cause for concern. El Niño-related conditions are expected to potentially impact the 2027–2028 harvest negatively, adding further uncertainty to the global supply picture.
