The United Arab Emirates increased oil production by 80% last month, according to a report submitted to OPEC. Following their withdrawal from the oil-producing nations’ organization, Abu Dhabi gained the freedom to pump without restrictions. According to a monthly report disclosed to Bloomberg on Monday, July 13, 2026, the UAE informed OPEC that it pumped 3.8 million barrels of crude oil per day in June. This represents an increase of 1.71 million barrels per day compared to May. The June figures preceded the recent escalation of hostilities between the United States and Iran, which could potentially affect the flow of oil through the Persian Gulf.
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Historic high of 4.1 million barrels per day
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced from Paris last week that UAE crude oil production rose by 900,000 barrels per day in June, reaching a record high of 4.1 million barrels daily. The surge in oil output is attributed both to Abu Dhabi’s decision to exit OPEC in early May and to the successful shipment of cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, despite disruptions caused by the conflict. This boost in cargo transit contributed to a supply surplus in the Asian market, forcing Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s leading power, to offer rare discounts on its oil volumes.
The United Arab Emirates informed OPEC that its oil production surged by 80% last month as Abu Dhabi found workarounds for the Iran war and was free to pump more barrels after leaving the producer group https://t.co/5sbqYSIqpa
— Bloomberg (@business) July 13, 2026
OPEC publishes two sets of production figures:
- one submitted directly by member countries, and
- another based on an average compiled by external consultants and media outlets, known as secondary sources.
Shortly before the war began, OPEC’s secondary sources had estimated UAE production at 3.39 million barrels per day, while the IEA had put the figure at 3.64 million barrels daily. Furthermore, OPEC’s secondary sources had forecast that UAE production in June would reach 3.8 million barrels, marking a 76% increase compared to the previous month.
Modest annual growth in oil demand
OPEC has revised its 2026 oil demand growth forecast downward, now projecting an increase of 800,000 barrels per day — representing a 0.7% rise compared to 2025. Despite the slight downward revision, the forecast remains considerably more optimistic than many others, including that of the International Energy Agency, which projects a decline in global consumption of 1 million barrels per day this year due to the impact of the war. Saudi Arabia, as OPEC’s lead member, also managed to increase its own production in June, though not to the same extent as its neighbor. According to the report, Saudi output rose by 561,000 barrels per day, reaching 7.122 million barrels daily.
