The steady decline of Greece’s public debt is steering the economy toward two major milestones, each carrying significant weight both symbolically and economically.
The first milestone falls this year, as public debt is expected to drop below 140% of GDP for the first time since 2010. This level marks a symbolic return below the threshold at which the memorandum era began. It is worth recalling that Greece’s debt stood at 146% of GDP in 2010, having risen sharply from 112% in 2008 to 127% in 2009 — a trajectory that pushed the country into years of severe fiscal crisis.
The second key milestone is set for 2029, when public debt is forecast to fall below 120% of GDP. This threshold holds particular significance for international markets and credit rating agencies, as it serves as a core benchmark for assessing debt sustainability and the country’s overall fiscal stability.
Finance Ministry: Public debt at 136.8% of GDP in 2026 — below 120% by 2029
According to projections from the Greek Ministry of Finance, public debt is expected to reach 136.8% of GDP (€357.515 billion) this year, down from 146.1% of GDP in 2025. It is then forecast to decline further to 131.5% of GDP (€355.8 billion) in 2027, before falling to 124.6% of GDP (€349.820 billion) in 2028, and reaching 119% of GDP (€346.045 billion) by 2029.
As the Hellenic Fiscal Council (HFC) notes in its latest report, this improvement is driven primarily by robust economic growth and the sustained maintenance of strong primary surpluses. According to data from the 2026 Annual Progress Report on debt dynamics, the contribution of primary surpluses to reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio reached 4.9 percentage points in 2025, and is estimated at 3.2 percentage points for 2026. Alongside the positive impact of strong growth rates, the early debt repayment strategy pursued by the Ministry of Finance and the Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) has also played a significant role.
HFC: An in-depth look at Greece’s public debt and the repayment plan through 2070
The HFC report provides a detailed breakdown of Greece’s public debt structure: the implementation of three macroeconomic adjustment programmes between 2010 and 2018 was accompanied by the disbursement of a total of €288.7 billion in loan funds. These were drawn from bilateral loans with eurozone countries (Greek Loan Facility, GLF), the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) — all on relatively favourable terms, including low interest rates and extended repayment periods. Servicing this debt will require fiscal surpluses for decades to come.
Notably, the IMF loans — totalling €32.1 billion — have been fully repaid as of April 2022. The remaining outstanding balance relates exclusively to loans from eurozone member states drawn through the support mechanisms (GLF, EFSF, ESM), amounting to €211.4 billion, with repayments extending through to 2070.
Of this total, €52.9 billion consists of bilateral intergovernmental loans extended to Greece by eurozone countries under the GLF, with the current outstanding principal standing at €26.3 billion. As part of Greece’s active debt management strategy, a series of early repayments has already been made. In December 2024, obligations totalling €7.935 billion — covering maturities due in 2026, 2027, and 2028 — were repaid ahead of schedule. In December 2025, an early repayment of €5.29 billion was made, covering a portion of liabilities originally scheduled to mature between 2033 and 2041. The PDMA has since announced a new early repayment of approximately €7 billion, covering instalments originally due in 2029 and the years 2033 to 2035.
It is estimated that by the end of 2026, approximately €19 billion will remain outstanding, to be repaid early at a rate of roughly €5 billion per year over the following four years, with a final repayment date of 2031. According to the HFC, this accelerated repayment trajectory is expected to have an immediate positive impact on reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio, containing interest expenditure, and stabilising the medium-term financing needs profile — ultimately strengthening the country’s financial resilience and credit profile.
Of the €141.8 billion disbursed under the EFSF, the outstanding balance currently stands at approximately €125.7 billion. Under the existing schedule, annual repayment instalments will continue through to 2070. The €58.8 billion in financial assistance drawn from the ESM during the third adjustment programme is expected to be repaid between 2034 and 2060.
