While Greece’s public debt is gradually declining, settling the full “bill” of the financial crisis will take several more decades — with complete repayment of loans to European mechanisms not expected until 2070. This is one of the key conclusions of the Greek Fiscal Council’s (GFC) latest report, which also revises its 2026 growth forecasts downward, citing a slowdown in the European economy and an increasingly challenging global environment.
Read also: Handelsblatt: Greece as a model of fiscal consolidation and active public debt management
Which loans have been repaid — and what obligations remain
According to the report, of the total €288.7 billion in loans that Greece received between 2010 and 2018 from Eurozone member states, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), approximately €77 billion has already been repaid. However, the outstanding balance still exceeds €220 billion, reflecting the extraordinary long-term burden of Greece’s debt servicing commitments.
More specifically, of the €52.9 billion in bilateral loans (GLF) provided by Eurozone countries, €26.3 billion remains outstanding. This balance is expected to fall to approximately €19 billion by end-2026, with early repayments of around €5 billion per year planned, targeting full settlement by 2031. By contrast, repayment of EFSF loans — totaling €141.8 billion, of which approximately €125.7 billion remains outstanding — extends all the way to 2070, while ESM loans of €58.8 billion are scheduled for repayment between 2034 and 2060.
Added to these obligations are €11.6 billion in loans from the European Investment Bank and the SURE programme, as well as €11.4 billion from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), with repayments on these beginning in 2032. In total, Greece’s outstanding loan obligations extending to 2070 exceed €230 billion.
Greek Fiscal Council forecasts lower growth in 2026
On the growth front, the Fiscal Council projects that the Greek economy will expand at a rate of 1.9% in 2026 — a figure very close to the Ministry of National Economy and Finance’s own forecast of 2%. This estimate aligns closely with projections from major international institutions: the OECD also forecasts 1.9% growth for 2026, while the European Commission and the IMF both project 1.8%, and the Bank of Greece similarly estimates 1.9%.
Primary surpluses and tax relief shape the fiscal outlook
On the fiscal front, the report highlights that 2025 delivered a performance that significantly exceeded initial expectations, with the primary surplus reaching 4.9% of GDP, up from 4.8% in 2024. For 2026, a primary surplus of 3.2% of GDP is projected, along with a general government surplus of 0.2% of GDP — lower than 2025 levels, reflecting the impact of tax relief measures announced at the Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF) and additional support packages for households and businesses facing elevated energy costs and inflationary pressures.
For the 2027–2029 period, the Medium-Term Programme projects annual primary surpluses of 2.7% of GDP. Over the same period, interest expenditure is expected to gradually ease from 3% of GDP in 2026 to 2.6% in 2029, creating the conditions for the general government balance to improve from a marginal deficit of 0.2% of GDP in 2027, to a balanced outcome in 2028, and a marginal surplus of 0.1% of GDP in 2029.
How Greece’s public debt is evolving
In detail, according to the Greek Fiscal Council’s Spring Report:
- At end-2025, Greece still owes approximately €220 billion to European institutions — equivalent to roughly 88% of GDP and approximately 55% of the country’s current central government debt. This amount must be fully repaid in unequal annual installments by 2070. Greece has committed to repaying ESM loans between 2034 and 2060, while EFSF loan repayments began in 2023 and will continue through 2070.
- Greece carries the highest public debt as a share of GDP in the EU, which stood at 146.1% of GDP at end-2025 — a reduction of 8 percentage points compared to 2024. This downward trend is expected to continue in 2026, with debt projected to fall by a further 9.3 percentage points to 136.8% of GDP. If these forecasts materialize, Greece’s public debt will drop below the 140% of GDP threshold — a milestone of considerable symbolic significance in the country’s long fiscal stabilization effort. The decline is projected to continue through 2029, eventually falling below 120% of GDP.
- This trajectory is driven primarily by strong nominal GDP growth and the sustained maintenance of robust primary surpluses. According to data from the 2026 Annual Progress Report on debt dynamics, the contribution of primary surpluses to reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio reached 4.9 percentage points in 2025, with that contribution estimated to moderate to 3.2 percentage points in 2026.
- In line with European Commission recommendations, Greece is expected to maintain average primary surpluses of approximately 2% of GDP over both the short and medium term. However, sustaining surpluses of this magnitude over such an extended time horizon represents a significant challenge for the Greek economy — particularly when viewed against the country’s historical fiscal performance under normal macroeconomic conditions.
