The International Monetary Fund predicts that Greece will grow at a rate of 1.8% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, compared to 2.1% in 2025, showing that the economy continues to move on positive ground but at a clearly slower pace than the previous year. At the same time, the Fund describes an international environment heavily affected by the war in the Middle East, with global growth slowing to 3.1% in 2026 from 3.4% in 2025 and the Eurozone also reducing its pace, with a forecast for 1.1% growth this year and 1.2% in 2027.
Read: Reuters: Commission reduces fiscal plan to 2% from 2.4% for Greece’s growth due to Middle East war
The picture for Greece has a dual interpretation. On one hand, the IMF sees continued growth and significant unemployment reduction, which gives the government political and economic space to argue that the country remains on a trajectory of resilience. On the other hand, inflation is expected to move significantly higher than last year, as the Fund predicts it will rise to 3.5% in 2026 from 2.9% in 2025, before de-escalating to 2.7% in 2027. In a period when disposable income is already under pressure from energy prices and increased cost of living, this forecast carries particular weight, as it shows that growth does not automatically mean easier daily life for households.
IMF: What it sees for unemployment and external imbalances
Among the positive elements of the report, the Fund records clear improvement in the labor market. Unemployment in Greece is projected to fall from 8.9% in 2025 to 7.4% in 2026 and even lower, to 7.1% in 2027. This estimate shows that, despite the international slowdown, employment in Greece continues to improve, something connected both to the continuation of investments and to the general course of the economy after the period of strong recovery in previous years. At the same time, however, the IMF records deterioration in the current account balance, as the deficit is projected to increase to 6.4% of GDP in 2026 from 5.7% in 2025, before returning to 5.7% in 2027. This means that the Greek economy will continue to show sensitivity to imports, energy costs, and its overall external position.
IMF: The baseline scenario and the major fear about energy and war
The critical element of this year’s report is that the IMF doesn’t simply talk about a baseline scenario, but about a “reference forecast,” which is based on the assumption that the war in the Middle East won’t last much longer and that disruptions in energy production and exports from the region will begin to normalize by mid-2026. Based on this hypothesis, the Fund incorporates an increase in energy prices by 19% and oil prices by 21.4% for 2026, while for the Eurozone it also estimates an increase in the ECB’s base interest rate by 50 basis points during the year. This shows that the IMF’s scenario for Greece is not a scenario of normalcy, but a scenario of resilience within an environment of strong international uncertainty.
The Fund, moreover, openly warns that if the crisis is prolonged, forecasts could worsen significantly. In the adverse scenario, global growth would be limited to 2.5% in 2026 and global inflation would rise to 5.4%. In the extreme scenario, where there would be further damage to Middle East energy infrastructure, global growth could fall to 2% and inflation could exceed 6% in 2027. Within this context, the IMF sends a clear message about fiscal policy too: any support measures taken must be targeted, temporary, and funded, so as not to disturb fiscal balance. In simple terms, the report gives Greece an image of relative resilience, but simultaneously makes clear that international uncertainty can very quickly change the terms of the game.
