Strong concern is being raised in Athens over US President Donald Trump‘s statements about a “gift” that would make Turkey “very happy,” referencing the issue of F-35 fighter jets and engines for the KAAN combat aircraft. Despite his announcements, the implementation of these promises faces serious obstacles. Congressional resistance and the legal framework of CAATSA sanctions make it likely that his statements will remain “theatrical,” as any attempt to bypass the law could ultimately land the issue in court.
F-35s for Turkey: Trump’s latest intervention reshapes the landscape
Professor of International Relations Kostas Ifantis tells parapolitika.gr that “based on recent history and President Trump’s recent track record, all of this is very often nothing more than empty talk.” As he points out: “We remember the last time they met at the White House — how warm President Trump was toward Erdoğan and Turkey. And in the end, of course, nothing happened, as the two Turkish journalists outside the White House confirmed. There is very little difference from now. President Trump would like to keep Turkey in America’s orbit in the Middle East. What he can actually offer is an open question. Knowing him as we do, he would have no problem giving the F-35s to Ankara or to any country, because his logic is not strategic — it is purely transactional. Can something like this happen right now? I very much doubt it, because the balance of power in Congress has not shifted enough to bypass the sanctions and the law that Congress itself imposed. If, however, the worst comes to pass and the sanctions are lifted and a process for the F-35s begins — because that is the most significant issue of all — then things will clearly change in Greek-American relations. Though even then there is no room, just as there was no room for Turkey, to pursue a rupture in relations with the United States.”
Within the Greek-American community in Washington, however, concern has been mounting over the US president’s “transactional” approach and his desire to keep Turkey within America’s sphere of influence — a stance widely seen as a threat to Greek-American relations. As Eddie Zemenides, Executive Director of the Hellenic American Leadership Council (HALC), tells parapolitika.gr, the most significant consequence for Greece lies in the potential disruption of the defense balance, should Ankara acquire the engines for the KAAN fighter jets. Zemenides considers Trump’s decision to supply Turkey with the engines a foregone conclusion, as is the president’s intent to reintegrate Turkey into the F-35 program. Nevertheless, the Greek-American community holds, according to Zemenides, a powerful lever of pressure to reverse Trump’s decisions — the upcoming midterm elections: “We will make it a pivotal issue — America’s relationship with Turkey. We have an opportunity to rebuild the coalition that stopped Turkey from acquiring the F-35s and to look to Hellenism broadly, not just to governments,” he states pointedly.
Greek-American diplomat Patrick Theros shares the same view, telling parapolitika.gr: “There is in America a deep-rooted friendship with Turkey that has not yet changed, but broadly speaking, Turkey no longer commands the sympathy it once had among American politicians. The issue is not just about Greece and Cyprus, which will object, but also about legal legitimacy. If the American President simply goes to Ankara and says he will discuss it and find a way to fulfill his promise, then it will be nothing more than theater. Nothing will happen — we will all just have been frightened a little. But if he says that, as President, he has the authority to impose his will on the law, then it will end up in the courts — meaning there will be allegations that he is violating the law.”
Despite the anxiety over the potential realization of Trump’s announcements, analysts point out that a stopover by President Trump in Athens — on his way to the NATO Summit in Ankara — could help rebalance America’s relationships with both Greece and Turkey. However, according to well-placed sources, there is currently no official indication that such a visit is being planned. Those same sources told parapolitika.gr that even if a stopover in Athens were included in Trump’s plans, security considerations would prevent any public announcement. It is worth noting, however, that Trump himself has previously expressed an interest in such a visit, and the US Ambassador to Greece has referenced the possibility on multiple occasions.
