Israeli security officials are speaking of “complete sidelining,” now recognizing that Israel has been excluded by the administration of American President Donald Trump, with the country’s leaders participating minimally in ceasefire negotiations between the USA and Iran.
Read: Washington Post: The US spent half its advanced missile stockpile protecting Israel
Israel sidelined in US-Iran negotiations
As the newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported Saturday morning: “Lacking information from their closest allies, Israelis had to learn what they could about contacts between Washington and Tehran through ties with regional leaders and diplomats.” According to the report, Israel is also using its surveillance capabilities within Iran to stay informed.
The report states that the reason is the assessment given by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to US President Donald Trump before the start of Operation “Epic Wrath,” according to which the Iranian regime was very likely to collapse as a result of the joint American-Israeli attack. According to the New York Times, “many officials in Trump’s inner circle always considered the idea of regime change absurd.”
Consequently, it didn’t take long for US and Israeli priorities to diverge, especially after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices higher and increasing pressure on Trump to agree to a ceasefire.
Why Israel is worried
It’s worth noting that Benjamin Netanyahu set three goals at the beginning of the war: the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program, the elimination of its missile program, and regime overthrow. So far, none of these objectives has been achieved, while Iran acts as if it has emerged victorious despite its military defeat.
The United States in negotiations reportedly has proposed suspending Iran’s nuclear activity for 20 years, a timeframe that could be shortened in later proposals. As the New York Times notes, with Israel’s exclusion from talks, Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal may have been left out of discussion, according to Israeli officials.
The concern in Israel is that a Trump-era agreement could ultimately resemble the 2015 Obama-era nuclear deal, without missile restrictions, without sanctions, and without permanent cessation of the nuclear program. In this scenario, billions of dollars would flow into Iran, providing an economic lifeline and allowing it to support its proxies, including Hezbollah, and help rearm them.
The related report describes how the Israel-US relationship changed during the war: from a situation where American officials sat alongside their counterparts at the Israeli Defense Forces headquarters in Tel Aviv and decisions were made jointly in real-time, including responses to Iranian missiles, to a situation where Israel awaits US approval for every action.
Characteristic is the case when Israel struck the South Pars natural gas field and oil facilities along the Persian Gulf in southern Iran. This move was made as part of a coordinated effort with the United States to pressure Iran into agreeing to a more favorable ceasefire. However, Trump ordered the bombing to stop. He initially denied knowing about the South Pars attack in advance, then criticized Israel for a “violent attack” and later implied that he had indeed spoken with Netanyahu beforehand and urged him not to carry it out. That evening, Netanyahu said Israel had acted alone and that Trump had asked him to delay future attacks.
Israel, days after signing the ceasefire with Iran, also agreed to prematurely stop its ongoing campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon and accept unusual restrictions. As the New York Times noted, Israeli officials protested their marginalization in negotiations. The protest was even more intense after Israel had voluntarily undertaken some of the most internationally controversial missions, including an alleged attempt to attack Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in an air raid.
