Weather forecast models are showing an increased warm trend for Greece in the coming days, according to an analysis by meteorologist Thodoris Kolydas, who clarifies, however, that the available data does not point — at least for now — to extreme heatwave scenarios. As he notes, temperatures are expected to rise gradually, with Attica set to be noticeably affected, while the most intense heat is forecast to arrive after mid-July, when warm air masses will spread across a larger portion of the country.
Greece weather: What the models show about the heat and why Kolydas is urging caution on heatwave claims
Ensemble forecasting systems (GEFS and ECMWF ENS) are converging on a broadly warm trend after July 14–15, though they differ on the intensity of the phenomenon — with the former running noticeably hotter and the latter more restrained. Meteorologist Thodoris Kolydas stresses that, despite the likelihood of a period of elevated temperatures, the most extreme scenarios remain a minority outlook for now. He emphasizes that the scientific approach is grounded in probabilities, not certainties. He also points out that in public weather discussions, the most dramatic model scenarios tend to get amplified online, which can create misleading impressions about how events are actually likely to unfold.
Thodoris Kolydas’s full post on the weather outlook
«WHAT ARE THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS TELLING US ABOUT TEMPERATURES AFTER THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF JULY?
Image removed. Ensemble forecasts show that after the first ten days of July, the probability of a warmer air mass over Greece — and particularly over Athens — increases noticeably. Both GEFS and ECMWF ENS are converging on a warm trend after July 14–15, though they are not signalling the same intensity. GEFS is generally running warmer, with higher probabilities of exceeding 22°C and 24°C at the 850 hPa level, while ECMWF ENS is more conservative.
At the same time, the more extreme scenarios remain a minority for now, which means we can speak with greater confidence about an increased probability of a warm spell — but not yet about a certain extreme heat event. We wrote this analysis because we noticed that online, only the most dramatic ensemble member tends to get shared. Our goal was to show how ensemble forecasts should be read correctly: in terms of probabilities, convergence, and uncertainty».
ΤΙ ΜΑΣ ΛΕΝΕ ΟΙ ENSEMBLE ΠΡΟΓΝΩΣΕΙΣ ΓΙΑ ΤΗ ΘΕΡΜΟΚΡΑΣΙΑ ΜΕΤΑ ΤΟ ΠΡΩΤΟ ΔΕΚΑΗΜΕΡΟ ΤΟΥ ΙΟΥΛΙΟΥ ;
✅Οι ensemble προγνώσεις μάς δείχνουν ότι μετά το πρώτο δεκαήμερο του Ιουλίου αυξάνεται αισθητά η πιθανότητα θερμότερης αέριας μάζας πάνω από την Ελλάδα και ειδικότερα πάνω από την Αθήνα.… pic.twitter.com/CaJjPC3FHw— Theodoros Kolydas (@KolydasT) July 6, 2026
