Strong economic growth, rising incomes, increased employment and consumer spending, reduced tax evasion, and market price increases are all expected to generate an additional €2.149 billion in tax revenue in 2027, according to the draft budget. Total tax revenues are projected to reach €77.878 billion, with personal and corporate income tax serving as the primary growth driver.
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At the same time, the current budget is also tracking at record levels, with tax revenues now estimated to reach €75.729 billion — well above the original forecast of €73.645 billion. This represents an overperformance of €2.085 billion, driven largely by VAT receipts, which are expected to exceed the initial target by €1.548 billion.
This tax revenue outperformance is pushing the current primary surplus to higher ground, reaching 3.6% of GDP, or €9.548 billion. This fiscal headroom gives policymakers approximately €400 million to fund interventions aimed at cushioning the impact of the energy crisis. Of this amount, around €200 million is expected to be allocated to support measures implemented through the end of 2026, while the remaining €200 million will serve as a financial buffer for the first quarter of 2027. However, this figure raises questions about whether it is sufficient to meaningfully offset the mounting energy costs borne by households and businesses amid successive price hikes.
Key projections from the draft budget in detail:
- VAT revenues are projected to reach €30.581 billion, down €196 million compared to 2026, due to a €911 million reduction in receipts from Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) project completions as the programme winds down. It should also be noted that 2026 figures include €306 million in one-off VAT revenues from the Egnatia motorway concession agreement.
- Revenues from excise duties are forecast to increase by €136 million, reaching €7.312 billion.
- Import duties and tariffs are projected to generate €533 million in revenue, up €72 million compared to 2026. This increase is primarily attributable to the full-year implementation of an EU customs measure — effective from 1 July 2026 — abolishing the duty exemption for low-value parcels imported from third countries and introducing a flat fee of €3 per item on such shipments.
Property taxes
- Revenues from recurrent immovable property taxes are expected to reach €2.365 billion, down €48 million compared to 2026, reflecting the abolition of the ENFIA property tax on primary residences in settlements with populations of up to 1,500 residents, as well as the recent extension of this exemption to cover settlements of up to 2,000 residents, and up to 2,200 residents in Western Macedonia.
- Other production taxes are projected to generate €614 million, down €147 million compared to 2026 estimates, primarily due to the phased abolition of the business licence levy for legal entities.
Income taxes
Income tax revenues are expected to total €29.376 billion, an increase of €2.038 billion, or 7.5%, compared to 2026.
More specifically:
- Personal income tax is projected to reach €16.995 billion, up €620 million compared to 2026, driven mainly by rising wages, pension increases, an anticipated further increase in the minimum wage, and a continued decline in unemployment.
- Corporate income tax is projected to reach €9.844 billion, up €1.302 billion compared to 2026, reflecting estimated higher corporate profits in the current fiscal year, which will be declared in 2027.
- Capital taxes are projected at €262 million, unchanged from 2026, while revenues from other current taxes are expected to reach €2.298 billion, up €54 million compared to 2026.
