Santander has upgraded the price target for GEK TERNA shares to €53 from €49 previously. According to the international firm, the revision is based on improved operational performance, increased visibility of the Group’s cash flows, stronger-than-expected concession performance, led by Attiki Odos, as well as gradual but rapid balance sheet improvement.
According to Santander, road concessions represent the key value creation lever for GEK TERNA, accounting for approximately 53% of the fair value of equity and 75% of the Group’s total enterprise value.
The international firm places particular emphasis on the increasing dividend potential of key concessions and rapid deleveraging at the parent company level. This is given that the majority of debt is non-recourse and linked to the projects themselves. The construction activity also receives positive evaluation, supported by historically high backlog and strong profitability margins, with the pipeline of new concessions, such as VOAK, strengthening GEK TERNA Group’s long-term growth narrative.
Despite the significant rise in the stock since the beginning of the year, Santander believes that the market continues to conservatively value the Group’s core assets. Assuming that other activities are fairly valued, the international firm calculates that the stock market values the highway portfolio at approximately €1.2 billion for 2027. This amount falls short of both the invested capital (€1.4 billion by the end of 2026) and the estimated fair value.
Based on projections of future dividends, the value of the highways is estimated at approximately €3 billion in 2027, with prospects of rising to €3.2 billion in the medium term.
