Global oil reserves are now “frighteningly low,” the CEO of Saudi Aramco has warned, adding that it could take up to two years to replenish the supplies depleted during the Middle East conflict. According to the Financial Times, Amin Nasser stated that the seven-month war involving the US, Israel, and Iran had reduced oil supply from the region by “nearly 3 billion barrels” — roughly equivalent to half the crude oil and refined fuels that would have passed through the Strait of Hormuz during that period.
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Over 1 billion barrels already drawn from reserves
More than 1 billion barrels of oil have already been drawn from reserves in an effort to offset the supply shortfall, Nasser added. Governments have released more than 300 million barrels from their strategic reserves and agreed on Friday to release even more. However, Nasser noted that the majority of supplies brought to market had come from commercial stockpiles, which represented “the last significant tool left in the toolbox.”
Saudi Arabia: “The system is under stress,” says state oil giant’s chief
In his first public address since the war began, the head of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company said he estimates that “fewer than 6 billion barrels of commercial oil stocks remain today, with the vast majority of those not practically accessible.”
“The system is already under stress,” he told the Energy Intelligence Forum conference in London. “And with few other options for the world to turn to, the buffer that provides supply resilience is frighteningly thin.” He added that modern technology — including “open-source data such as satellite imagery and shipping records” — “is increasingly being weaponized against infrastructure and tankers.”
In recent weeks, Iran has struck vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while its allies in Iraq and Yemen have launched attacks on Aramco pipelines, refineries, and ports. “Transparency tools should not be turned into ammunition for offensive actions,” Nasser said.
His warnings underscore the scale of the damage the conflict has inflicted on the global oil market, even as a complex system of rerouting crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz is now helping to restore flows.
Oil shipments growing costlier
Oil shipments from Gulf countries climbed to 15.5 million barrels per day last month — the highest level since the war began and more than 80% of pre-conflict volumes — according to data from commodity intelligence firm Kpler.
However, these shipments have become extremely costly, and oil markets remain in a state of acute supply tightness, with prices for physical North Sea crude cargoes scheduled for delivery this month rising to their highest levels since April.
Nasser said that even after the conflict ends, “replenishing stocks while meeting demand could take up to two years,” and called on governments to place greater emphasis on energy security and supply resilience.
Aramco is exploring additional routes for exporting Saudi crude oil and is considering establishing additional overseas storage facilities to help protect its customers from future disruptions, he said.
