Athens’ decision to withdraw the Patriot anti-aircraft systems from Karpathos and Didymoteicho has opened a new cycle of political and geostrategic debate, at a time when Greek-Turkish relations are once again moving in delicate balance.
The government insists this is a purely operational choice, connected exclusively with the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East and specifically with the cessation of missile threats from Iran. Government spokesman Pavlos Marinakis rushed to reject any connection between the withdrawal and Turkey’s displeasure, emphasizing that “it was operationally decided that the Patriots should return” and speaking of excessive interpretations regarding alleged Greek retreat. As he explained, these specific systems had been installed on Karpathos due to the risk of missile attacks from Iran during the peak period of the Middle East crisis, not to counter the Turkish threat.
Mirage 2000-5 aircraft on Karpathos and Athens’ deterrent message
Since, according to the government, no corresponding danger has been recorded for weeks, there is no reason for them to remain on the island, so the Patriots return to their base and are “replaced” by Mirage 2000-5 aircraft. Athens seeks to disconnect the issue from any logic of “Turkey-centrism,” insisting that the country’s defensive arrangement is not determined exclusively by Ankara’s moves. In the same context, government sources emphasize that if the Patriots were intended to counter Turkey, they would have been deployed years ago at these specific points. At the same time, it is communicated that if a threat from the Middle East re-emerges, the staffs will re-examine their redeployment, without taking “approval” from NATO, just as they did not take approval for the initial transfer of Patriots to these specific points.
Turkish media reactions – New Turkish narrative and Aegean challenges
At the same time, the Greek side attempts to send a message of deterrent continuity. The decision to station a pair of Mirage 2000-5 fighter aircraft on Karpathos is interpreted as a clear indication that military presence in the Southeastern Aegean is not only not weakened but is being reorganized with different means. It is no coincidence that this specific development provoked intense reactions from Turkish media, which brought back the familiar arguments about “illegal armament” of Greek islands.
The Turkish side, moreover, appears determined to maintain high tensions. The new narrative developing around the planned law for the “Blue Homeland” perhaps constitutes the most systematic attempt to challenge Greek sovereign rights in recent years. According to leaks from Ankara, Turkey appears ready to directly challenge Greek sovereignty over 152 islands, islets, and rocky islets, characterizing them as “gray zones.” Turkish analysts and academics go even further, arguing that ownership of these areas can be determined “legislatively,” while some even speak of casus belli in case of “violation.” Simultaneously, Ankara revives the theory that beyond six nautical miles from Greek islands, jurisdiction belongs to Turkey itself, essentially attempting to bisect the Aegean and impose a regime of limited Greek sovereignty in the maritime zones of the region.
Athens: Scenarios for possible summer tension escalation
“Greece has the means to manage it both preventively and suppressively. In any case, ‘because I want it’ is not a sign of strength, but of weakness,” Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis stated on the matter. In this climate, Athens does not rule out the possibility of experiencing a “hot summer.” For the first time, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Lana Zochios, responding to a related question, stated: “There is a possibility of escalating potential tension. We are preparing, gathering necessary information, but in no case do we preemptively make moves that could expose us. We have prepared for all possible scenarios and will proceed, depending on the content of the bill, with appropriate reactions and actions.” It is clear that Athens chooses to proceed in two ways: on one hand with diplomatic calm and on the other with strengthening its deterrent power. The Government Council on Foreign Affairs and Defense approved the acquisition of two plus two Italian frigates of the Bergamini type, as well as the upgrade of MEKO frigates, which in combination with the new Belharra frigates aspire to further upgrade the operational capabilities of the Greek fleet in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean.
Behind Ankara’s constant escalations, those knowledgeable about developments contacted by the newspaper responded that they discern a broader geopolitical targeting. Turkey may be attempting to create controlled tension in the Aegean, so that it can subsequently appear as a force of “self-restraint” toward the United States, claiming concessions such as its reintegration into the F-35 program. While everyone in Greece was trying to interpret how the “calm waters” narrative collapsed, Defense Minister Nikos Dendias differentiated himself, stating at the “Circle of Ideas” forum: “I do not belong to those who have believed the ‘calm waters’ narrative. I would not want to preemptively encourage a dialogue about something that constitutes a leak. If it is real, it is particularly disturbing and the word ‘disturbing’ is perhaps an understatement,” thus leaving clear barbs about the true nature of Turkish intentions, but also about their interpretation by certain voices within Greece. The experienced minister repeated that Greece has not the slightest claim against Turkey and that if Turkey chooses such a path, Greece is obligated, according to its Constitution, to defend its borders and rights.
Published in Parapolitika
