A new, more targeted model for managing overdue debts to the tax authorities is being activated by AADE, attempting to identify with greater accuracy which taxpayers are genuinely unable to pay and which have the financial capacity but systematically avoid settling their debts.
According to the 2026 operational plan, the tax administration is transitioning to a new debtor assessment model, implementing in practice the PARE methodology (Payment capacity – Attitude – Recency – Event).
AADE: How the new PARE system will work for tax debts
This is a data analysis and taxpayer “scoring” system, based on which a detailed economic behavioral profile is created for each debtor.
The new approach is based on four key pillars:
- Payment Capacity: The tax administration will examine bank deposits, income, real estate and movable property, to determine whether the debtor has genuine repayment capability.
- Attitude (Behavior): The taxpayer’s previous stance toward their obligations will be evaluated, i.e., whether they complied with payment arrangements, settled on time, or showed systematic inconsistency.
- Recency (Debt age): AADE will give different weight to “fresh” and older debts of the taxpayer.
- Event (Economic events): The analysis will factor in significant events, such as income loss, business crisis, or other economic incidents that may have affected the debtor’s payment capacity.
The goal of the Independent Authority is more effective collection of overdue debts, while simultaneously limiting the possibility of creating a new generation of “red” debts. The new model will utilize artificial intelligence tools, big data, and electronic data cross-referencing, aimed at automating the process of identifying high-risk debtors.
The tax administration’s plan comes at a time of dramatic increase in overdue debts as data for the first quarter of 2026 shows significant deterioration of the picture. In March alone, unpaid taxes reached 840 million euros, resulting in new overdue debts to the tax office skyrocketing to 2.819 billion euros in the first quarter of the year.
At the same time, the number of debtors increased by 30.31%, reaching 4,797,755 natural and legal persons, compared to 3,681,752 in February 2026. Of these, more than 2.3 million taxpayers face forced collection measures, such as seizures of bank accounts and assets, while measures have already been imposed on 1,684,592 debtors. Total debts to the tax office amount to 114.516 billion euros. Of these, 35.264 billion euros are characterized as uncollectable, resulting in the actual overdue balance standing at 79.252 billion euros. In the first quarter, “fresh” overdue debts amount to 3.023 billion euros, of which 2.819 billion euros concern exclusively tax obligations.
Within this environment, AADE sets as a basic goal for 2026 the collection of at least 3.2 billion euros from old overdue debts, of which 1.5 billion euros will come from VAT. Large debtors will remain on the front line of control.
