Turkey is actively seeking to elevate its geopolitical standing ahead of the NATO Summit scheduled in Ankara on July 7–8, while simultaneously pursuing a two-faced strategy that is raising serious alarm bells in Athens.
Erdoğan’s double strategy
On one hand, the Erdoğan government is positioning itself as the West’s “cooperative partner.” On the other, it continues to fully uphold the revisionist doctrine of the “Blue Homeland,” directly targeting Greek sovereign rights.
This contradictory posture was encapsulated in a recent statement by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who claimed to harbor no expansionist ambitions while unmistakably wagging his finger at Greece: “We do not seek crises, chaos, quarrels, or conflicts with anyone. On the contrary, we favor strong cooperation based on mutual respect and have had no designs on anyone’s territory or sovereignty. However, we will not allow anyone to encroach upon our sovereignty, threaten our country, or harm our interests. Our principle is very clear: we neither wrong anyone, nor will we allow ourselves to be wronged,” he stated pointedly.
Fidan’s diplomatic marathon and the Eastern Mediterranean agenda
Meanwhile, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has been at the center of an intense wave of diplomatic activity. Following his contacts in Moscow, he held critical meetings with his counterparts from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan — attended by Massad Fares Boulos, a close aide to the U.S. president on African affairs — to discuss the political situation in Libya. Yet once again, Fidan did not miss the opportunity to place the Eastern Mediterranean firmly on the agenda, stating that “Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United States had an important discussion on the issue of Libya. While discussing Libya, we also had the opportunity to raise other Mediterranean issues,” signaling Turkey’s persistent drive to assert itself as a dominant regional power.
Athanasios Platias to parapolitika.gr: “Turkey’s geopolitical upgrade is a given”
Professor of Strategy at the Department of International and European Studies at the University of Piraeus, Athanasios Platias, speaking to parapolitika.gr, assessed that Turkey is indeed coming out as a winner from the “reshuffling of the deck” in the Middle East. As Western nations seek to reduce their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz and pivot toward overland pipelines, Turkey has become a pivotal player on the energy chessboard.
According to Professor Platias, “Turkey’s geopolitical upgrade is a given. Its powerful defense industry and strong ties with the Trump administration make it a significant factor that Europe cannot afford to ignore. So Turkey genuinely feels it has moved up in the rankings. This means that relative to us — who, if anything, are standing still or even weakening militarily compared to Turkey as time goes on — a fertile environment is being created for Ankara to sharpen the pressure against us. This is nothing new. It has been building for some time and will intensify in the period ahead.”
“A hot incident cannot be ruled out”
Under these circumstances, despite his rhetoric about “mutual respect” and the absence of expansionist ambitions, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continues to send warning messages to Greece, insisting he will not allow anyone to “encroach upon” his country’s interests. According to the analyst, this stance is far more than mere rhetoric — it reflects a deeply held conviction of strength. Professor Platias warns that this sense of superiority is creating fertile ground for escalating pressure, with the ultimate objective of forcing Athens into concessions.
The danger, moreover, is not limited to verbal threats. The strategic analyst’s assessment is that Ankara may go so far as to deliberately provoke a “hot incident” in order to achieve its objectives. As he puts it: “Turkey’s geopolitical upgrade clearly carries risks — and the military imbalance in Turkey’s favor carries risks above all. Turkey feels that the military balance of power is working in its favor. So right now it is trying to use these tools to escalate its demands and push Greece into making concessions. A hot incident at some point cannot be ruled out. That is my own assessment.”
The image of “calm waters” in the Aegean now appears to be dangerously clouding over. All signs suggest that Ankara’s tactics are unfolding gradually through a series of concrete actions — from contesting wind farm projects in the Aegean and interfering with undersea cable-laying operations, to threatening to legislate its “Blue Homeland” territorial claims. Taken together, these moves point in a clear direction of escalation, one that Greek foreign policy must now confront in an environment of growing uncertainty.
