“At a time when Greece’s opposition is claiming that the Recovery Fund ‘has failed’ and represents a missed opportunity, a new international analysis published on VoxEU by CEPR presents a strikingly different picture,” writes Minister of State Akis Skertsos in a recent post, urging readers “to read it carefully, because this is not a government press release.”
Skertsos: investments in Greece increased by 5.9% of GDP
As Akis Skertsos emphasizes: “The author, Dino Pinelli, is a senior research advisor at the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs. The study examines Italy, Spain, and Greece, comparing their post-pandemic economic trajectories with other Eurozone countries that also received Recovery Fund financing. The findings for Greece are particularly noteworthy.” He then presents the data:
“- From 2019 to 2025, Greece’s real GDP grew by 10.8%, compared to just 5.4% in the benchmark countries.
– Working hours increased by 7.5%, versus just 2.6% in the benchmark countries.
– But the most striking figure concerns investment. Greece’s total investment rate rose by 5.9 percentage points of GDP. In the benchmark countries, by contrast, investment fell by approximately 2 percentage points of GDP.
And there is something else of major significance: the analysis finds evidence that public investments from the Fund have also mobilized private investment, rather than crowding it out. In Greece’s case specifically, the authors point to a broader convergence process: GDP is above its pre-pandemic trend, investment is rising significantly from its historically low base, and total factor productivity (TFP) is making a strong positive contribution.
This does not mean that the Recovery Fund alone drove everything that has happened in the Greek economy. The researchers themselves are cautious: this is a preliminary descriptive analysis, and further econometric research is needed to rigorously isolate the Fund’s causal impact. But that is precisely the point that deserves attention in our domestic public debate.
A serious assessment cannot be made with slogans about ‘failure’ at a time when Greece is outperforming its benchmark peers on critical indicators of growth, employment, and — above all — investment. When an international analysis finds that the post-pandemic period in Greece is associated with stronger growth, a far greater increase in working hours, and most notably a spectacular acceleration in investment, any honest political discussion must begin from these facts.”
In his post, Akis Skertsos adds: “There is a broader takeaway worth holding on to: the great ambition of the Recovery Fund was not simply to temporarily boost GDP. It was to transform the productive base of the country through investment and reform. For Greece, the results so far in digitizing the state, advancing the energy transition, reforming the labor market, and improving the healthcare system show that something significant has indeed begun to change — and convergence with Europe’s core is now very close.
As we work alongside Nikos Papathanasis, Orestis Kavalakis, Evi Dramaliotis, and the rest of our government colleagues to close the final pending milestones of the 9th payment request — which completes this major reform and investment programme — we can say one thing with certainty:
For the first time, we as a country have managed a European plan of Greek ownership — in terms of its investment and reform mix — whose primary goal was not merely to absorb EU funds (which we will achieve without delay), but above all to transform the economy and the state.
And the foundations for that transformation have already been laid.
Now we need to complete the work: to continue the reforms, sustain the investment momentum, and convert this acceleration into permanently higher productivity, incomes, and jobs.”
“Because ultimately,” he concludes, “we have an obligation to judge economic policy by the results it delivers — not by easy slogans that ignore the measurable progress of recent years,” the Minister of State concludes.
His post:
