Next week is expected to clarify the scope of new support measures and benefits planned by the government, as the available fiscal space will be finalized. A decisive role will be played by data on the 2025 primary surplus, which Eurostat will announce on Wednesday, April 22, and which is expected to confirm the outperformance of the Greek economy.
According to sources, the primary result is expected to move close to the zone of 4.8% to 4.9% of GDP, approximately 12.2 billion euros, significantly exceeding the budget forecast of 3.7% of GDP or 9.1 billion euros. This performance creates additional fiscal space exceeding 3 billion euros, but its final utilization will depend on negotiations with European institutions.
A determining factor remains the separation of increased revenues from combating tax evasion into permanent and extraordinary, as this distinction will determine the scope of interventions. The government’s intentions were signaled by Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis, who, speaking from the International Monetary Fund headquarters in Washington, announced an upward revision for both the primary and overall surplus.
As he emphasized, the economy is recording better performance than expected, leaving open the possibility of new support measures once the scope of fiscal space is clarified and in relation to energy developments. He clarified, however, that decisions do not depend only on overperformance, but also on European fiscal rules. He placed particular emphasis on the new spending rule in force in the European Union, noting that utilizing available space requires coordination with Brussels. “The final picture will become clear in the coming days,” he said, pointing to upcoming announcements.
Once the available amount is “locked in,” under the constraints set by the Stability Pact, the economic team will proceed with resource allocation. Priority will be given to support measures for energy costs, the benefits package from the Thessaloniki International Fair, and maintaining a reserve due to geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East war. In this context, a repetition of already announced measures worth around 300 million euros is likely, such as extending horizontal fuel subsidies, financial support through the fuel pass, while there is a scenario on the table for subsidizing electricity bills.
