LNG trading activity will play a significant role in the upward revision of AKTOR’s financial metrics, as noted by the Group’s Chairman and CEO, Alexandros Exarchou, during the conference call with analysts for last year’s results. According to Mr. Exarchou, the agreement recently signed by Aktor LNG with Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina for LNG quantities of 1.5 bcm will contribute €9 billion in cash flows over a 20-year period, starting from 2030. He estimated that the remaining MoUs signed for LNG supply (with Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine) will take the form of definitive agreements within the coming months. Thus, supply quantities will increase to up to 8 bcm per year. He explained that the agreement signed with Venture Global concerns LNG purchases for the period 2030-2050 at fixed prices and flows. Therefore, it enables the estimation of the turnover for this 20-year period with relative accuracy.
Regarding 2026 to 2030, he noted that an agreement with Naftogaz for the delivery of one LNG cargo has already been implemented, while the goal is to have additional deliveries. In this context, the goal is to have a deal with Venture Global for the supply of an additional 4 bcm, as well as to secure another 2 bcm from other sources. For the current 5-year period, it is not possible to have an accurate estimate of the economic impact on LNG supply. However, this specific activity is expected to contribute €80-130 million annually to the Group’s operating profitability by 2030. Regarding renewable energy sources, he emphasized that 50% of the target set by the AKTOR group is already “locked in” – to have a portfolio of 1.3 GW by 2030. This is because projects with a total capacity of 665 MW are already in operation or under construction.
He noted that Aktor Renewables’ activity is intended for now to be limited to Greece. Regarding electricity generation overall, plans outside the borders concern the development of gas power generation units in Albania and Bosnia, which however are correlated with LNG activity. He noted that, due to price cuts, the period is favorable for the acquisition of photovoltaic and wind farms. Therefore, there is an opportunity for Aktor Renewables to continue its development as much as possible.
AKTOR: Strong target revision with 2030 horizon, €5.5 billion revenue target set
At the same time, according to the new estimates presented by Alexandros Exarchou, the Group’s consolidated turnover in 2030 is positioned between €4.6 and €5.5 billion, while EBITDA is expected to be shaped at €550 to €600 million. Net profits are estimated in the region of €190 to €220 million, reflecting a significantly stronger picture compared to the previous planning.
The construction sector maintains its role as the “engine,” with revenues estimated at €2.6 billion and EBITDA strengthened to €224 million, from €180 million in the old plan. Net profits are projected to reach €94 million, versus €80 million previously, a fact attributed to margin improvement and more efficient project execution.
Particularly impressive is the revision in the concessions sector, where revenues increase to €103 million from just €15 million, while EBITDA more than doubles to €89 million from €40 million. Correspondingly, net profits are shaped at €22 million from €10 million, confirming the increasing role of the sector in overall profitability.
In renewable energy sources, the Group estimates revenues of €167 million and EBITDA of €135 million, versus €160 and €130 million respectively in the previous plan, while net profits are projected to move at €8 million. The facility management sector maintains a stable contribution, with revenues of €175 million and EBITDA of €22 million, while net profits are estimated at €10 million.
Conversely, the real estate sector is significantly limited, with revenues declining to €7 million from €65 million in the previous plan, while losses of €4 million are recorded, a development linked to the strategic choice of shifting resources toward more profitable sectors, such as concessions.
A distinctive position in the new plan is occupied by the LNG sector, which emerges as a new development pillar, with estimated revenues from €1.6 to €2.5 billion, EBITDA from €80 to €130 million, and net profits from €55 to €90 million by 2030.
The overall picture that emerges demonstrates AKTOR’s transition to a more diversified and resilient business model, where concessions, energy, and new activities acquire increasingly greater weight, forming the foundations for strong and sustainable development in the next decade.
