The government is operating under the motto “run as if elections are tomorrow,” while publicly maintaining that the polls will be held in 2027 and having set as its strategic objective the achievement of a third consecutive outright majority. The atmosphere of readiness being cultivated is affecting MPs of the ruling party, who are intensifying their efforts against the backdrop of a prolonged pre-election period — with some aiming to secure the highest possible ranking on the final candidate lists, and others fighting for their re-election to parliament. Based on the current polling picture for New Democracy, several sitting MPs are in danger of being left out.
New Democracy: Of 156 MPs, only 118 would enter parliament
In the scenario where New Democracy finishes first in the national elections with 29.3% of the vote — which represents the projected vote share (extrapolated to the full electorate) from GPO’s July poll conducted for iefimerida — the ruling party would win 118 parliamentary seats (five of which are national-list seats), down from the 156 MPs that currently make up the parliamentary group of Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ party. Under this seat distribution scenario, more than 35 sitting New Democracy MPs face the risk of failing to enter parliament.
The phenomenon is most pronounced in what are known as medium-sized constituencies — specifically those electing four or five MPs — where the loss of a large share of the electoral bonus significantly reduces the number of seats available to the leading party. Under this scenario, New Democracy could lose one to two seats in the following four-seat constituencies: Evros, Kavala, Pella, Imathia, Pieria, Kozani, Trikala, Karditsa, Fthiotida, Western Attica, Corinthia, Cyclades, and Chania, as well as in the five-seat constituencies of Dodecanese, Magnesia, Messenia, and Serres.
Who is fighting for their seat
Against this backdrop, and based on the performance of individual MPs as recorded in the last general elections of 2023 — and without factoring in changes to the candidate lists that are currently being drawn up — the sitting MPs fighting hardest for re-election include Angeliki Delikari in Kavala, where Nikos Panagiotopoulos is projected to finish first, Giannis Paschalidis second, and Makarios Lazaridis third. Other at-risk MPs from regional constituencies include Giorgos Kotronias in Fthiotida, who received the fewest preference votes among elected MPs there, while in Karditsa, Asimina Skondra and Telis Spanias are at risk if two seats are lost. Similarly, tough battles are expected for Michalis Papadopoulos in Kozani, Spyros Koulkoudinas in Pieria, Katerina Papakosta-Palioura in Trikala, Giorgos Karasmanis in Pella, Markos Kafouras in the Cyclades, Theofilos Leontaridis in Serres, and Alexandros Markogiannnakis in Chania. Under this scenario, New Democracy also appears set to lose a seat in Piraeus B, where Giannis Tragakis — who finished last in the previous election — will not be standing again, and in Imathia, where following the death of Apostolos Vesyropoulos, the current MPs are Tasos Bartzokis, Lazaros Tsavdaridis, and Stella Arambatzi.
Similarly, New Democracy’s parliamentary representation is set to shrink in Laconia, where the constituency is currently represented by Neoklis Kritikos and Thanasis Davakis, and in Corinthia, where Kostas Kollias became an MP following the loss of Nikos Tagaras. On the borderline under the 29.3% scenario are Thanasis Bouras and Vangelis Liakos in Western Attica, as well as Vasilis Ypsilantis in the Dodecanese. New Democracy also appears likely to lose a seat in Messenia, where the political landscape remains fluid pending the finalization of Antonis Samaras’ plans for his new party, while New Democracy is sounding out potential candidates for its ballot lists. In Heraklion too, New Democracy’s strength is diminishing, with Lefteris Avgenakis, Kon. Kefalogiiannis, and Maximos Senetakis all competing for preference votes.
In any case, the preference vote tallies from the last general election serve as an indicator of each candidate’s electoral strength — though ballot upsets are common, particularly in the complex dynamics of regional constituencies.
Internal competition
In the large constituencies of Attica and Thessaloniki, meanwhile, internal competition is intensifying as the process of drawing up electoral lists is still under way. In these particular constituencies, the mood is shaped less by the prospect of losing seats and more by the entry of new candidates onto the ballot lists, which is creating new power balances and a reshuffling of forces.
* In any case, under the 29.3% scenario, New Democracy could lose one seat each in Athens A, Eastern Attica, Northern Athens, and Piraeus B, while the centre-right party could win up to two fewer seats compared to 2023 in Southern Athens and Thessaloniki A.
In the large constituencies, where New Democracy’s and the government’s “big names” are traditionally elected, candidate activity has picked up noticeably. Since the New Democracy party congress last May — when the unofficial pre-election period for the ruling party informally began — ministers and MPs have been stepping up their presence in their constituencies and intensifying their activities through events, gatherings, and dinners on an almost weekly basis. In Athens A, a notable addition is New Democracy’s press spokesperson Alexandra Sdoukos, who is contesting a seat in the constituency where ministers Kyriakos Pierrakakis, Vasilis Kikilias, Olga Kefalogianni, and Thanos Plevris are standing, alongside parliament speaker Nikitas Kaklamanis — who is reportedly a strong contender for a national-list seat — and Angelos Syrigos.
In Northern Athens, the candidacy of government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis has sharply intensified competition in a constituency where the government’s “top-tier” ministers are seeking votes: Deputy Prime Minister Kostis Hatzidakis, Health Minister Adonis Georgiadis, Labour Minister Niki Kerameus, former minister Dimitris Kairidis, Deputy Finance Minister Nikos Papathanasis, and former deputy minister Zoe Rapti. Theodoros Rousopulos, meanwhile, is reportedly determined not to stand as an MP again, though the possibility of a national-list candidacy for New Democracy has not been ruled out. In the Southern Athens constituency, the candidacies of former minister Andreas Loverdos and the prime minister’s head of digital communications Nikos Romanos are confirmed, while former secretary-general Tasos Gaitanis will also stand again.
New Democracy’s list for the largest constituency in the country is also highly competitive, with Defence Minister Nikos Dendias, New Democracy secretary Konstantinos Kyranakis, Development Minister Takis Theodorikakos, deputy ministers Vasilis Spanakis, Charis Theocharis, Anna Karamanli, and former deputy minister Sofia Voultepsi all seeking re-election. Also standing in the South will be Giannis Kallianos, while it has yet to be confirmed whether Dionysis Hatzidakis will run again. In Eastern Attica, Education Minister Sofia Zacharaki, Makis Voridis, Stelios Petsas, Giorgos Vlachos, and Vasilis Oikonomou are all standing again, while new dynamics are being created by the inclusion of Deputy Health Minister Mario Themistocleous on the ballot. Similarly in Western Attica, where minister Michalis Chrysochoidis is projected to finish first, the addition of Deputy Health Minister Eirini Agapidaki is reshaping the field and intensifying competition on a ballot that will also feature Maria Syrengela, Giannis Loverdos, and Dimitris Kalogeropulos.
* In Thessaloniki A, meanwhile, it appears that the New Democracy leadership’s goal is to boost the party’s strength in what was once one of its strongholds by fielding high-profile names. To that end, alongside deputy ministers Kostas Gioulekakis, Stavros Kalafatis, Elena Rapti, and Anna Efthymiou, and MPs Dimitris Kouvelas, Stratos Simopoulos, and Diamantis Golidakis, the candidates will include Deputy Education Minister Nikos Papaioannou, the prime minister’s office coordinator Giannis Papageorgiou, and former secretary-general Thanasis Tsiouras. Additionally, discussions are under way regarding potential candidacies in Thessaloniki A by Justice Minister Giorgos Floridis, Agriculture Minister Margaritis Schinas, and Deputy Infrastructure Minister Nikos Tachiaos.
Originally published in “Kyriakатiki Apogeimatini” (Sunday Evening edition).
