Greek-Turkish relations remain on a tightrope, despite efforts by the Greek Foreign Ministry to keep communication channels open, “so that bridges exist which can prevent crises,” as Giorgos Gerapetritis stated yesterday.
During a period of exceptionally uncertain and fluid geopolitical conditions, Athens and Ankara attempt to maintain “calm waters” in the Aegean, while simultaneously defending diametrically opposed interests. The recent meeting between Foreign Ministers Giorgos Gerapetritis and Hakan Fidan in Sofia once again highlighted the gap separating the two countries, despite declared intentions to avoid crises.
“We seek and want calm. We seek and want to have a relationship based on international law. But this in no way means we are willing to make any concessions,” the Greek Foreign Minister stated yesterday. Meanwhile, Turkey’s Foreign Ministry leaked to the Turkish press that the “Blue Homeland” bill remains on the table and, as Turkish media report, “Fidan stated that a draft bill on maritime jurisdiction, currently before the Turkish parliament, is a matter of domestic legislation, emphasizing that Turkey respects international law and good neighborly relations. The Turkish Foreign Minister told Giorgos Gerapetritis that Ankara expected the same respect from all its neighbors and characterized as regrettable statements made by ‘certain circles,’ based on what he called incomplete information about the draft.”
Simultaneously, tension extends to the field of regional alliances. The recent military agreement (SOFA) between France and the Republic of Cyprus, which provides for the deployment of French forces on the island, provoked Ankara’s angry reaction. The Turkish Defense Ministry yesterday characterized the agreement as illegal, arguing that it violates the 1960 treaties and ignores the sovereign rights of Turkish Cypriots, while conveying that Turkey, as a guarantor power, will protect its interests in the region.
Within this climate, Defense Minister Nikos Dendias stated that “Greece operates under conditions of constant threat” and emphasized the need to accelerate defense innovation through ELKAK, characterizing technology as the “great power equalizer” that allows the country to strengthen its capabilities against challenges.
Professor of International Relations Kostas Yfantis, speaking to parapolitika.gr, estimates that despite the high tones in Erdogan’s rhetoric, “Turkey will not cause any tension in the Aegean.” As he argues, “Turkey is bothered by our relationship with the United States and by what the US does here. It’s bothered by the alliance with France. It’s certainly bothered to the point of hysteria by our relationship with Israel. I don’t expect all this to translate to the field. Unless we make some mistake ourselves. That gives them a pretext to proceed with a crisis. I don’t think so, though.”
According to Mr. Yfantis, Athens’ stance toward Ankara’s unilateral “Blue Homeland” legislation and its claims in the Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean should be mild because, as he argues, “Athens should handle all this with humor. In a way, tell them you’re being ridiculous with what you’re doing. Not that Turkey doesn’t mean what it says. But then what should we do? Should we keep the fleet in the Aegean constantly? And watch what every Turkish coast guard vessel does? Then the probability of an accident is very high. We haven’t reached that point yet. I think we’re indeed entering a period that’s not the same. I just don’t believe we’ll go to something very serious that could worry us. It matters to see if there will be a Mitsotakis-Erdogan meeting at the NATO Summit. Right now it doesn’t seem there’s such a possibility, but we’ll have to see.”
