Athens is planning a diplomatic counteroffensive against Turkish revisionism. The “battlefield” is expected to shift to the upcoming NATO meeting, which will be held in early July in Ankara. The Greek side is determined to put the neighbor’s provocations on the table, with the spearhead being Turkey’s intention to incorporate the “Blue Homeland“ doctrine into its national law.
Read: International law “nullifies” the “Blue Homeland”: The legal “void” of Turkish claims
The crucial NATO meeting in Ankara and Greek strategy
Specifically, despite the fact that NATO operates as a military alliance where decisions are made unanimously, the Greek side estimates that it has every opportunity to expose Turkish provocations at the next meeting so that allies understand the neighbor’s true intentions. These steps are deemed necessary by Greek diplomacy, as the passage of the “Blue Homeland” law is considered to blow up the diplomatic dialogue framework, giving Turkey the pretext to ignore the International Law of the Sea by invoking its internal legislation.
Washington’s stance will play a decisive role in developments. The central question remains the presence of the American President at the Summit and whether he will choose to intervene in bilateral issues, should they be raised by the Turkish side.
Angelos Syrigas: How Athens can block Turkish plans
According to Professor of International Relations Angelos Syrigas, Greek intervention will intensify when the issue of European defense autonomy and the role Turkey will play in it is raised. Countries like Germany, Italy and Spain are expected to demand Ankara’s immediate involvement in the next phase of European defense. At this point, Greece will exert maximum pressure, highlighting Turkish expansionism as an obstacle to such cooperation. As Angelos Syrigas points out to parapolitika.gr, Athens’ reaction will function as a lever of pressure on Turkey, especially at a time when it is raising the stakes through the press and official statements. As Mr. Syrigas argues: “On this issue, the question will be raised about who will help Europe establish its own defense strategy. It is certain that there will be at least three countries, such as Germany, Italy and Spain, which will demand Turkey’s immediate involvement in the European defense project. In this case, the Greek side has every opportunity to raise all these issues and mainly its objections to Turkey’s involvement, as long as it maintains its revisionist positions.”
When the “Blue Homeland” law can be implemented
It remains unknown, however, whether the disputed law will be passed by the NATO meeting. As Mr. Syrigas argues, for Turkey to create problems in the field, the “Blue Homeland” law must first be passed, then Erdogan must sign the relevant implementation decrees, and third, they must send ships to sea for its implementation. Based on this assessment, no hot incident is expected to occur in the Aegean during the summer.
Everything indicates, however, that the period of “calm waters” seems to be giving way to a phase of diplomatic confrontation. Although no immediate “hot incident” is expected, concern remains, with Turkey continuing practical provocations, such as obstructing cable laying or sending ships to disputed areas.
Turkey’s new moves and practical provocations in the field
At the same time, Ankara is constantly raising the stakes and publications speak of Athens’ impending reaction to the “Blue Homeland” law. In fact, as they note in the coming period, the Greek government will announce the creation of two marine parks in the Ionian Sea and the southern islands of the Cyclades “to Ankara’s displeasure.” The same publications attribute the declaration of marine parks to political reasons and argue that it is ultimately Greece’s attempt to change the status quo in the disputed sea rather than protect biodiversity. Under this prism, the Turkish side is expected to entrench itself behind its new legal framework, while Greece is planning its presence at NATO meetings with the goal of strategically protecting its rights and ensuring that no provocation goes unanswered at the international level.
