Inflation in food prices across the Eurozone continues to run higher than pre-pandemic levels, primarily due to elevated international prices in specific product categories, according to a recent analysis by the European Central Bank.
Why the food basket remains expensive in the Eurozone – Which products are driving inflation
The study reveals that the general food price index averaged 2.9% during the eleven-month period from January to November 2025, significantly higher than the long-term pre-pandemic average of 2.2%. The biggest contributors to price increases were products like meat, coffee, tea, cocoa, chocolate and confectionery, which are experiencing sharp increases in international markets. According to ECB data, these specific categories account for over 50% of the total annual food inflation rise, despite their combined weight in the index not exceeding 25%.
In contrast, prices in other food groups have largely stabilized after the dramatic surge recorded during 2022-2023. It’s worth noting that in March 2023, the food price index had reached a historic high of 15.5% on an annual basis.
The ECB notes that despite relative stabilization in several product categories, pressures from key raw materials continue to keep food inflation at levels significantly higher than pre-coronavirus times.
International food price increases began during the pandemic period, due to extreme weather events linked to climate change, and intensified following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. At that time, increases mainly affected wheat and cereals, sugar, eggs and dairy products. Subsequently, we saw increases in international olive oil prices due to reduced production in Mediterranean countries that are the main producers, while in the last two years it’s meat, chocolate, cocoa and coffee that are particularly burdening consumers.
Coffee and chocolate prices skyrocket
International coffee prices had more than doubled by early 2025 compared to early 2024. Subsequently, according to Trading Economics, they declined 28% from February to July 2025, only to rise again by approximately 40% through November before declining again. The ECB study notes that changes in international food prices pass through to consumer prices with time delays, as previous IMF research had emphasized, meaning that price decreases in international markets also appear after some time in the prices consumers pay.
The surge in international chocolate prices began in the second half of 2023 and peaked in April 2024, while subsequently declining but remaining at high levels, according to Trading Economics.
Meat price increases mainly concern beef, with producer prices in Europe rising on average by 28% in late November on an annual basis, according to European Commission data. After stabilizing in October, prices returned to their upward trend at historically high levels “due to structurally limited animal availability and strong global demand.” In the first nine months of 2025, EU production decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, with significant declines in major producing countries like Germany (-6.8%), France and Spain (both -2.8%). The production decrease resulted in a large increase in beef imports by 14.2% (in the first eight months of 2025).
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) also records the increase in international beef prices, noting that the meat price index increased by 5.1% in 2025. However, it reports that beef and sheep prices rose sharply year-on-year due to strong import demand and limited export availability. Conversely, pork prices declined as global import demand weakened, while chicken prices fell slightly due to large supply.
The food inflation analysis based on a model used by ECB analysts showed that wage increases in the retail sector also contribute to price rises. The latest data on compensation per employee across various economic sectors showed that wage increases in trade, transport and accommodation remained high in 2025 compared to pre-pandemic levels.
The ECB expects, however, that food inflation will decrease significantly in 2026, dropping close to 2% by year-end, as the impact from previous increases in their international prices weakens by summer.
