Iran is rebuilding significant parts of its military capabilities that were damaged by American and Israeli attacks at a faster pace than initially estimated by US intelligence services, according to a CNN report. Tehran has reportedly already restarted part of its drone production during the six-week ceasefire that began in early April, while American estimates suggest that some operational capabilities may be restored within six months.
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According to information cited by CNN from four sources, US intelligence services estimate that Iran’s military machine is recovering significantly faster than expected, raising concerns about the ongoing threat Tehran poses to Israel and US allies in the region.
Two sources familiar with US assessments reported that Iran has already restarted part of its drone production, despite serious damage sustained during American-Israeli bombings.
“Iran could fully restore operational drone attack capability within 6 months”
A US official told CNN that Iranian capabilities are being restored faster than even the most optimistic intelligence projections. “The Iranians have exceeded all timelines the intelligence community had set for reconstruction,” they stated.
According to some US estimates, Iran could fully restore its operational drone attack capability within six months. The same sources note that, in case of renewed hostilities, Tehran could supplement its now-reduced missile production with increased drone attacks against Israel and Gulf states.
This report comes as Donald Trump continues to publicly threaten renewed military operations against Iran if no agreement is reached to end the war. The American president stated Tuesday that he was “one hour” away from ordering a new bombing operation.
US intelligence services estimate that Tehran still maintains significant capabilities in ballistic missiles, drones, and anti-aircraft systems, despite the damage sustained.
Russia and China remain “on the side” of Iran
One of the sources cited by CNN argued that Iran’s faster-than-expected recovery is due to a combination of factors, including support from Russia and China. Two sources familiar with US assessments reported that China continued to provide Iran with components that can be used in missile construction during the conflict, although this activity appears to have been limited due to American sanctions.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CBS that China provides Iran with “missile manufacturing components,” without giving further details. China’s Foreign Ministry rejected the allegations. Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun stated that the claims “are not based on facts.”
50% of Iran’s drone capabilities remain active, according to US
According to a previous US intelligence assessment, about half of Iran’s missile launchers had survived American strikes. A newer report raises this percentage to two-thirds, partly because the ceasefire period gave Iran time to recover launchers that had been buried from previous attacks but not destroyed.
US services also estimate that about 50% of Iran’s drone capabilities remain active, while a large portion of coastal defense cruise missiles has not been destroyed.
These specific missiles are considered a critical means of Tehran’s pressure on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Difference in assessments between Pentagon and intelligence services
The report also highlights the difference in assessments between military officials and US intelligence services.
CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper stated Tuesday before the House Armed Services Committee that Operation “Epic Fury” destroyed 90% of Iran’s defensive industrial base. “Operation Epic Fury significantly degraded Iran’s ballistic missiles and drones, while destroying 90% of its defensive industrial base, ensuring that Iran will not be able to rebuild for years,” he stated.
However, two sources familiar with US intelligence reports told CNN that these assessments do not align with available data. One source noted that damage to Iran’s defensive industrial base may have delayed its reconstruction by only a few months rather than years, while part of the military infrastructure remains operational.
