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Sweden election 2026: Knife-edge race — Andersson 175, Kristersson 174

Sweden’s 2026 election hangs by a thread as the latest SVT projection gives Andersson’s bloc 175 seats to Kristersson’s 174.

Sweden election 2026: Knife-edge race — Andersson 175, Kristersson 174
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The Swedish election is shaping up to be a nail-biting finish that could come down to the very last seat, as the first real vote counts dramatically overturned the picture painted by exit polls immediately after the polls closed. The latest projection from public broadcaster SVT gives the opposition bloc led by Magdalena Andersson 175 seats — exactly the absolute majority threshold in the 349-seat Riksdag — while Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s bloc trails with 174. Voter turnout is estimated to exceed 80%.

Read also: Sweden election: Exit polls point to centre-left Social Democrat victory as far-right appears to fall back to 17.2%

Sweden election: From a 183–166 lead to a razor-thin 175–174

The first exit polls had suggested a fairly comfortable centre-left victory. SVT’s initial survey gave the four opposition parties 183 seats, compared to 166 for the forces backing the Kristersson government.

The picture shifted, however, as actual votes began to be counted. At around 9:45 p.m. Swedish time, a new SVT projection — combining results from approximately 10% of electoral districts with the public broadcaster’s forecasting model — narrowed the gap to just a single seat. At one point during the count, the projection had even briefly tipped in favour of the right-wing bloc, underscoring just how fluid the race remains.

Social Democrats lead, Moderates come in second

Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats remain the largest party in SVT’s latest projection with 27.6%, though this is down from the 28.4% they were awarded in the initial exit poll. Ulf Kristersson’s Moderates have strengthened their position, polling at 20% and claiming second place. In doing so, they have overtaken the Sweden Democrats — a development of considerable political significance for the Prime Minister, given that pre-election speculation had centred heavily on the possibility that Jimmy Åkesson’s far-right party could surpass the Moderates and emerge as the dominant force within the right-wing bloc.

The Sweden Democrats are currently polling at 17.5%. They are followed by the Left Party at 8.2%, the Centre Party at 7.1%, the Christian Democrats at 6.3%, and the Greens at 6.2%.

Liberals clear the 4% threshold

The performance of the Liberals has also proved pivotal to the balance between the two blocs. Ahead of the vote, there were serious concerns that the party might fail to clear the 4% threshold required for entry into the Swedish parliament. Their absence from the Riksdag would have cost Kristersson’s side crucial seats. However, SVT’s latest projection puts the Liberals at 5.5% — a result that significantly bolsters the government bloc and has contributed to the dramatic narrowing of the gap that had appeared in the initial exit polls.

Kristersson or Andersson — Two scenarios

The final result will determine whether Ulf Kristersson remains Prime Minister for a second term, or whether Magdalena Andersson returns to power four years after her defeat in the 2022 election. Kristersson has governed since 2022 with the Moderates, Christian Democrats, and Liberals, backed in parliament by the Sweden Democrats. Ahead of this year’s vote, he had left open the possibility of formally bringing Jimmy Åkesson’s party into the government — a move that would be unprecedented in Sweden’s modern political history.

Andersson, for her part, is seeking a majority with the Social Democrats, the Left Party, the Greens, and the Centre Party. Even if her bloc prevails, the policy differences between the four parties are expected to make coalition negotiations a complex and challenging process. Counting continues, and the Swedish Electoral Authority has noted that the election night results are preliminary. The final count is expected on Monday, with the official certified result to follow later in the week.

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