European suspicions regarding Russia’s aggressive intentions on the Old Continent intensified after the strike that Romania received yesterday from a Russian drone. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is no longer a limited regional conflict, but a direct threat to European security, which puts the Old Continent in a state of permanent alert.
Europe on high alert after the Russian strike on Romania: the next day for European defense
The possibility of a Russian attack was not ruled out yesterday by European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, in an interview with Spanish newspaper “El Mundo,” who stated that: “What our intelligence services say is that Putin could be ready for military aggression against neighboring NATO member countries.”
Furthermore, he argued that Russia has not used all its military power in the war in Ukraine, characteristically emphasizing that “Not everything produced by Russian industry goes to battles in Ukraine: they are storing reserves. And if peace comes, and we want it to come, their military production will not stop. And we must understand that, if Russia starts aggression against our countries, we will face a Russian army that is battle-tested, capable of using millions of unmanned aircraft. And our experience in this area is quite limited. Only Ukraine has it, which is why integration with Ukraine is so important,” the European Commissioner argued, estimating that Russian war production is not expected to stop even if some form of peace is achieved in Ukraine.
What is being considered
After yesterday’s strike on Romania, European Union member countries also examined the possibility of activating NATO’s Article 4, which provides for consultation of the parties within the framework of the alliance, when the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened. NATO’s Article 4 is one step before activating the defensive clause (Article 5, regarding collective defense). That is, a member state of the alliance can request increased measures and increased assistance. The most recent activation of NATO Article 4, in February 2022, by Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, demonstrated the intense concern of states neighboring Russia for their territorial integrity.
Discussions about Europe’s defensive armor against Russian aggression are constantly on the table. However, consultations are taking on an urgent form, especially since Europe’s strategic position is becoming even more vulnerable due to US plans to reduce their military presence in Europe, which makes upgrading European defense capabilities mandatory. One of the proposed options is the creation of a unified European rapid response force.
The absence of European air defense, which could shoot down Russian drones along European borders, exists. Greece had proposed, together with Poland, the creation of a unified European anti-missile shield and, despite support from European bodies, there were disagreements between member states. However, as geopolitics professor at parapolitika.gr, Theodoros Tsakiris, argues, “although there is an older anti-missile program on the European continent, the states participating in it do not utilize it, preferring to resort to NATO, because they believe that NATO, due to US participation, constitutes a better protective shield. At least that’s what they believed until Trump appeared”.
NATO’s weakening, courtesy of Trump, is leading Europe today to seek ways to fill this gap with its own forces, although about 80,000 American soldiers continue to be stationed, offering a stable rapid response force.
Problems
The fact remains, however, that the European defense industry faces serious structural problems and lags behind the Russian one. The reluctance of certain states to increase their defense spending, the lack of common understanding, the slow certification processes within the EU and the absence of long-term guarantees for companies operating in the war industry delay any common strategy against Europe’s common defensive armor, weakening the collective power of the Old Continent and making all countries more vulnerable.
