Donald Trump managed to broker a ceasefire agreement for Gaza, but the war in Ukraine remains unresolved despite his campaign promises. The Ukrainian conflict proves far more diplomatically complex than the Middle East crisis, as it involves two powerful sides with significant allies.
The difference between Gaza and Ukraine
Unlike the situation in Gaza, where one side has become completely dependent on external aid, the war in Ukraine is characterized by a balance of power. Ukraine has the support of Europe and the US, which despite its weaknesses represents enormous resources. On the other side, Russia relies on its Soviet arsenal and assistance from China and North Korea.
Vladimir Putin has engaged in a “sunk cost” mentality, believing that European powers will eventually retreat. Russian drones continue to violate European airspace, showing Moscow’s growing boldness.
Trump’s success in the Middle East
Trump’s characteristic arrogance and bombastic approach bore fruit in the Israel-Palestine conflict. In this case, Israel depends heavily on American aid and protection from the American veto in the UN Security Council. This dependence gave Trump the necessary leverage.
The ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel represents a diplomatic success, although its sustainability remains questionable. Israel has violated similar agreements in the past, raising questions about long-term implementation.
The challenges of the Ukrainian war
The war in Ukraine requires highly specialized diplomatic approaches that exceed the capabilities of traditional American pressure. Unlike Hamas, Ukraine resists effectively and has strong allies even without direct American participation.
Russia, as the clear aggressor, does not depend on American protection and has autonomy in its decisions. This situation does not favor Trump’s approach, which relies on direct and hard pressure.
The Gaza plan as an example
The 20-point plan for Gaza reveals Trump’s methodology. It includes typical conflict termination elements, strange decorative elements, and complete capitulation by Hamas. It provides for:
• Israeli withdrawal and aid provision
• Gaza administration by a committee under Trump and Tony Blair
• Creation of a special economic zone
• Economic development plan for reconstruction
• Complete dissolution of Hamas and surrender of all weapons
The reality on the battlefield
During the war, Russia has made gradual progress at enormous cost. It has suffered approximately one million casualties, exhausted most of its Soviet military equipment, and sees its economy collapsing.
Ukraine has suffered proportionally fewer losses but significant damage to civilian infrastructure from Russian bombardments. Meanwhile, it has begun targeting Russian oil facilities, hampering Russia’s main economic resource. Despite Trump’s promises to end the war “from day one,” hostilities continue.
