For about a year now, he has been “laying the groundwork” for the award by crafting a peacemaker profile and simultaneously aspiring to leave his mark not only in Oslo, where the deliberations for the Nobel Peace Prize take place, but also in the global community as the American president who ended wars and emerged as a peace figure. Frenzy has prevailed in recent days at betting companies over this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, with many having placed bets on Donald Trump’s name. Will they come out winners or losers? What is certain, however, is that just hours ago, the Israeli Prime Minister proclaimed Trump the winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize with a photograph and the help of Artificial Intelligence, at a time when the American president himself maintains that he deserves this particular award. However, the road to the award seems somewhat rocky for the US president, with an academy announcement leading to the conclusion that it is rather difficult for Trump to emerge as the winner.
The clouds of concern over a potential Nobel Peace Prize victory formed from the moment the responsible academy announced that the decision was made before Trump’s announcement that the war in Gaza had ended. On Monday, when the picture was still unclear regarding the possibility of white smoke emerging from Gaza, officials settled on a winner who could well be UN Secretary-General António Guterres or even the International Criminal Court. The American president, despite efforts from the first moment he sat in the presidential chair, does not seem to convince that he is proceeding with the peacemaker profile deserving of the corresponding Nobel.
Nobel Peace Prize 2025: Why Trump’s chances of winning are slim
Although during Trump’s tenure the US approached Russia so closely and reopened the possibility of talks between Moscow and Kyiv delegations, and for the first time in two years created an agreement that met the acceptance of both Israel and Hamas, there are nevertheless gray areas that distance Trump from the position of peacemaker. His administration’s approach to Gulf countries to participate in governance for the new day in Gaza without fully implementing the two-state solution, so desired by the international community, does not seem sufficient to grant Trump the coveted – for him – title. Nor can the notorious 20-point plan by itself seem adequate for the Nobel Peace Prize, though it has written its own history in the Middle East.
It’s worth noting that the global community focuses on the merciless strikes in Gaza without ignoring the outraged reactions caused by Israel, which in every move, in the bombings, had the support of Trump’s America. The International Criminal Court accused Netanyahu of war crimes, a position that Trump clearly opposed. The American president has expressed his sorrow for the existing situation in Gaza at times, however plans regarding Palestinian relocation have triggered anger in the Middle East.
The next day in Gaza has not yet been built, so for many it would be too early to say that Trump truly established peace in the region. Trump’s reaction in case he loses the Nobel Peace Prize is awaited with interest, something he has been fighting for from the start of his term by repeating at every opportunity that wars would not have started during his tenure. However, his handling is considered controversial by a large part of the international community, opening a wide field of division.
Trump, Obama and the inevitable “attacks”
If Trump loses the Nobel Peace Prize, criticism directed at Barack Obama’s administration period, the American president who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009, is considered rather inevitable since the Republican frequently criticizes the Nobel academy for its choice about 15 years ago, attributing to the then Democratic staff the chaos with terrorism and bombings in Syria.
In any case, regardless of predictions and bets for this year’s winner, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize will have its own special interest. This year, 338 individuals and organizations have been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, which last year was awarded to the Japanese organization Nihon Hidankyo, a movement of survivors of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
