A high-risk game is underway with Russia and China having already unveiled hypersonic missiles while Europe struggles to acquire a role. At the center are two Russian “super weapons” that, according to Putin, can turn any target to dust. According to BBC reports, the presentation of Chinese DF-17 missiles in a military parade in Beijing on October 1, 2019, marked a new chapter in the major powers’ competition for hypersonic missile development. Today China is considered the leading power in hypersonic weapons, followed by Russia. The US has intensified its investments, developing the “Dark Eagle” weapon as a response, while countries like France, Japan, Israel, and Iran are also working on the technology.
According to experts, Moscow and Beijing’s lead is due to timely and massive investments that began years ago, when Western countries had their attention focused on terrorism and counterinsurgency wars. The result, as the former head of British MI6, Sir Alex Younger, admitted in 2020, was that the West “overlooked China’s massive rise as a military power.”
“This is just one piece of the broader framework of emerging geopolitical competition we’re seeing between state actors,” says William Freer, a national security researcher at the think tank Council on Geostrategy. “It’s something we haven’t seen since the Cold War era.”
Mr. Freer of the Council on Geostrategy think tank, which is partially funded by defense companies, the UK Ministry of Defence and other organizations, argues that the reason China and Russia are ahead is relatively simple. “They decided to invest a lot of money in these programs several years ago.”
Russia: What are the two “super weapons”
Russia showcases two “super weapons” as an indisputable advantage:
Avangard: A hypersonic glide vehicle that, according to Moscow, can reach speeds of Mach 27 (approximately 20,700 mph), although estimates place its actual performance around Mach 12. Its maneuvering capability makes it nearly impossible to intercept, with Putin calling it “invincible.”
Oreshnik: A missile tested in Ukraine in 2024, with speeds of Mach 10–11. In its experimental launch, the payload split into multiple warheads, simulating Cold War methods. Putin has stated it will enter mass production, capable of “turning any target to ash.”
Russia also possesses the Kinzhal (Dagger), which was presented as “invincible,” but in practice has been intercepted multiple times in Ukraine.
But these weapons don’t just have speed. For a missile to be characterized as truly “hypersonic” from a military perspective, it must be maneuverable during flight. In other words, the military that launched it must be able to change course in sudden and unpredictable ways, even when heading toward its target at extremely high speeds. This can make interception extremely difficult. Most ground-based radars are not reliable for detecting hypersonic missiles until the final stage of the weapon’s flight.
“Flying below the radar horizon, they can avoid early detection and appear on sensors only in the final phase of their flight, limiting interception opportunities,” says Patrycja Bazylczyk, associate researcher at the Missile Defense Program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, which has received part of its funding from US government agencies as well as defense companies and others. The answer to this, she believes, is strengthening the West’s space-based sensors, which will overcome the limitations of ground-based radars.
Russia also possesses other missiles that travel at hypersonic speeds. Putin made a big deal about his air force’s Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles, claiming they travel so fast they’re impossible to intercept. Since then, he has launched many of them at Ukraine.
“The end result is that we failed to understand China’s massive rise as a military power,” admitted Sir Alex Younger, shortly after stepping down as head of Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service in 2020.
Other countries are also advancing rapidly: Israel has a hypersonic missile, the Arrow 3, designed as an interceptor. Iran claims to possess hypersonic weapons and stated it launched a hypersonic missile at Israel during their brief but violent 12-day war in June. (The weapon did travel at extremely high speed, but wasn’t considered maneuverable enough during flight to be characterized as truly hypersonic). North Korea, meanwhile, has been working on its own versions since 2021 and claims to have an operational weapon.
Why hypersonic missiles are so dangerous
Their difference from conventional ballistic missiles isn’t just speed but also their unpredictable trajectory. Glide missiles can maneuver during the final phase, making detection and interception extremely difficult. Ground-based radars detect them too late, leaving minimal reaction time.
Beyond their strike power, their strategic value lies in uncertainty: a state under attack doesn’t know if it’s facing a nuclear or conventional strike, increasing the risk of escalation.
In a real-time war scenario, there’s also a terrifying question facing the targeted country: is this a nuclear or conventional attack? “Hypersonic weapons haven’t changed the nature of warfare so much as they’ve changed the timeframes within which you can operate,” says Tom Sharpe, former Royal Navy commander and specialist in missile defense matters.
“The basic elements, namely the need to detect the enemy, fire at them and then guide the missile slowly to be able to hit a moving target (the great advantage of ships), don’t differ from previous missiles, whether they’re ballistic, hypersonic or subsonic. Similarly, the defender’s requirement to detect and intercept or destroy an incoming hypersonic missile is the same as before, you just have less time.”
There are indications that this technology worries Washington. A report published in February of this year by the US Congressional Research Service warns: “US defense officials have stated that both ground-based and current space-based sensor architectures are inadequate for detecting and tracking hypersonic weapons.”
