Donald Trump appears open to discussing Moscow’s conditions for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, which according to the WSJ includes withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas and “freezing” the front lines in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.
Specifically, the American president stated yesterday that a “land swap” is planned between Kyiv and Moscow, without providing further details.
The plan reportedly involves not only the withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces from Donbas, but also Russian forces from Sumy, Dnipro and Kharkiv regions.
At the same time, judging from the strongly negative reaction of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who declared this morning that Ukraine will not surrender an inch of territory, this development would be particularly unfavorable for Kyiv.
If the insider information from Western media outlets proves accurate and the US agrees to Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Donbas, we could be looking at the transfer of at least ten cities to Russia – Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk, Mirnograd, Rodynske, Dobropillia, Lyman and Siversk. This corresponds to approximately 25% of Donetsk region’s territory or nearly 7,000 square kilometers (marked in red on the map).
Most of these cities are extensive, fortified areas of Ukrainian forces, which have been prepared for defense for years.
A land swap would signal an 80-kilometer advance westward for Russian forces.
Territory to be given to Ukraine
Meanwhile, Russia controls 1,175 square kilometers of territory in the Kharkiv region and another 207 square kilometers in the Sumy region (marked in blue on the map), as well as an insignificant area in the Dnipro region.
That is, even if there is some exchange of these areas for Donbas, it would clearly be a less positive outcome for Kyiv.
