Citizens in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt are heading to the polls today, with its 2.2 million residents poised to make a landmark move in the country’s recent history: making the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) the leading political force — something that hasn’t happened since World War II.
Read more: Saxony elections: AfD holds clear lead in polls — far-right party on the verge of power
The perfume entrepreneur who wants to make history in Germany
As Deutsche Welle reports, the AfD’s success in this state has a name and a face: Ulrich Siegmund. The 36-year-old Ulrich Siegmund — who arrived to cast his vote on a light-blue Vespa, as seen in the article’s photo — is the figure who more than anyone else embodies the rise of the AfD in eastern Germany. He now stands one step away from becoming the first far-right minister-president of a German state since World War II, riding a campaign styled after a pop star.
With a background in business administration and economic psychology — including a thesis on the influence of scents on human psychology — and a former career in marketing, Siegmund presents himself as smiling, charismatic, and particularly popular among young voters. His image is far removed from the stereotype of the angry populist. He is the “good neighbor.”
Behind the friendly profile, however, his critics see a hard-line political agenda. Siegmund promises drastic restrictions on immigration, the strengthening of national identity, a return to nuclear energy, and the elimination of funding for organizations that promote civic education and diversity. He supports weakening public broadcasting, abolishing compulsory school attendance, and introducing the option of home schooling. He wants Germans to stop feeling ashamed of their country’s past, to free themselves from the ghosts of Nazism — and potentially to rewrite the history of World War II. Close associates of his have come under scrutiny for alleged involvement in neo-Nazi and neo-pagan organizations with practices reminiscent of the Hitler Youth, yet Siegmund has stood by them and continues to work alongside them.
Analysts describe his campaign as a masterclass in political marketing, while his opponents warn that Saxony-Anhalt could become the launchpad for a broader rise of the AfD across Germany as a whole.
The latest poll for the German news agency gives the AfD 41% and the Christian Democrats 23% — a result that, if confirmed, would trigger a political earthquake. The remaining parties are polling between 6% and 11%.
Officially designated as “verifiably far-right” by the state’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt has invested heavily in a rhetoric of xenophobia and insecurity, fronted by a candidate who, at just 35, is charging forward from the far right on the back of a pop star-style campaign.
The possible scenarios
What could unfold from Sunday evening onwards in Saxony-Anhalt? The first scenario would be an outright AfD majority, allowing the party to govern alone. This would not necessarily require 50% of the vote — it could be achieved if several of the smaller parties fail to clear the 5% threshold. Based on the most recent polling, however, securing an outright majority appears extremely unlikely.
The second scenario involves the AfD winning without an absolute majority, with other parties attempting to form a coalition government. Polls suggest that, alongside the AfD, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Left Party, and the Greens are all set to enter the state parliament. Whether a three-party coalition would be workable remains unclear.
“The CDU’s incompatibility resolution with both the AfD and the Left Party has been overtaken by political reality in the east,” political scientist Benjamin Henne told ZDF, suggesting the party is “in a position to weigh up coolly and realistically which direction it should open up to.” The leader of the Left Party in the state, Eva von Angern, has signaled her willingness to engage in discussions.
The third scenario involves a minority government, should the parties fail to reach a coalition agreement — since only a simple majority is required in the third round of parliamentary voting to elect a minister-president. Should the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) also enter the parliament, the election of the AfD candidate by this route cannot be ruled out. Any minority government, however, would face the enormous challenge of implementing its agenda, as it would depend on support from other parties for every vote.
Merz watches anxiously
Whatever happens, one thing is certain: tonight, Chancellor Merz will be watching events unfold in Magdeburg with considerable anxiety from the chancellery. The light in his office will go out late. Whatever happens today in Magdeburg will have repercussions for the chancellery, for the trajectory of the Merz government, and for Germany as a whole in the years ahead, as Deutsche Welle’s analysis notes.
