The contradictory statements from US President Donald Trump and Pentagon leadership are intensifying uncertainty around the development and outcome of the war with Iran, leaving allies, markets, and American lawmakers trying to decipher how and when the conflict could end.
As reported by Axios, each week that passes without a clear resolution prospect deepens the economic impact domestically in the US and fuels international instability, raising the political stakes for Trump ahead of the midterm elections. Trump told Republicans on Monday during an annual meeting that the US has already won the war, “but we haven’t won enough.” This statement came hours after he told CBS News that the war is “very complete, almost.”
Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that Tuesday “will be the most intense day of attacks so far.”
Below are five possible scenarios for how the war with Iran could end.
Scenario 1 for ending the war against Iran: Negotiated ceasefire and nuclear agreement
Ending Iran’s nuclear program is one of the main objectives Trump has declared since the start of operation “Epic Fury.”
Iran and the United States conducted three rounds of indirect talks on the nuclear program in Geneva, just days before the war began. However, Trump’s envoys concluded that Tehran was not serious about reaching an agreement.
Trump said Monday on Fox News that resuming talks is “possible,” but expressed disappointment over the selection of hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei as successor to his deceased father as supreme leader.
The day before attacks began, mediators from Oman said Iran had agreed not to stockpile enriched uranium and called peace “within reach.” However, it remains unclear how the war will affect future negotiations.
Scenario 2 for ending the war against Iran: The Venezuela model
Trump has referenced Venezuela — where the US arrested President Nicolás Maduro in January and established a working relationship with his successor, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez — as a possible template for Iran.
The American president said Monday he believes Iran “made a big mistake” with the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei and implied that the new supreme leader might not remain in position for long.
Beyond geography, however, the Iran-Venezuela comparison has significant limitations. Experts point out that treating them as equivalent cases misinterprets the power structure of the Islamic Republic.
The regime has survived 47 years of sanctions, wars, and internal uprisings, solidifying its position through military, religious, and political institutions designed to survive beyond any individual leader.
For Iranian protesters who have risked their lives demanding regime change, a US-backed leader coming from within the same system could be perceived as betrayal rather than liberation.
Scenario 3 for ending the war against Iran: Popular uprising and regime collapse
The possibility of collapse cannot be ruled out. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, the economy has collapsed, and Iran experienced its largest demonstrations since the 1979 revolution just weeks before the war began.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has presented the attacks as a development that creates “the conditions for the brave Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands.”
The Iranian opposition, however, lacks a unified leader or organized force within the country.
Exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi is among the most popular opposition figures, but Trump has downplayed his credibility, partly because Pahlavi hasn’t lived in Iran for nearly 50 years.
Israeli-backed Kurdish forces could offer some ground support, however the risks are significant, including the possibility of Iran descending into a civil war similar to the one that destroyed Syria for a decade.
Scenario 4 for ending the war against Iran: Special forces operation for nuclear stockpiles
The US and Israel have discussed the possibility of sending special forces to Iran, aimed at securing or physically destroying the stockpile of highly enriched uranium, according to Axios.
In this scenario, the war would end not through political agreement, but through the physical elimination of the nuclear threat.
However, such a mission would require the presence of troops on the ground in a country that continues to launch ballistic missiles.
Scenario 5 for ending the war against Iran: Trump declares victory and withdraws
In this scenario, Trump assesses that Iran’s missile and drone capabilities have been sufficiently weakened, declares a historic victory and withdraws, regardless of whether the political situation in Tehran has been resolved.
Markets appear to be betting on a quick exit, especially as the domestic economic impact in the US threatens to become a serious political problem for the president.
However, Trump himself has warned that if the “wrong” leader takes power, the US will be forced to return to war “in five years.”
Ending the operation may also require Israel’s consent, which has shown it is willing to act unilaterally and has committed to definitively eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat, with or without Washington’s support.
The war in Iran began almost without warning. The same may be true for its end.
