Donald Trump appears to be preparing for a “swift” and “decisive” strike against Iran, according to American NBC, with potential escalation at a later stage. However, as The Atlantic aptly writes in its headline, it’s not possible for the US armed forces to “do everything simultaneously,” despite a budget approaching $1 trillion.
This is because there are many fronts that are parallel and “burning”: On one hand, there’s the major front called the “Caribbean” and “Venezuela.” As the Wall Street Journal reminds us, the American president ordered the reinforcement of military presence in the Caribbean last fall, as part of the pressure campaign against Venezuela’s now-overthrown leader, Nicolás Maduro. This move now limits his options in case conflict erupts between Washington and Tehran due to the popular uprising in Iran, according to current and former US Defense Department officials cited by the WSJ.
Trump’s shift in priorities
As an indication of the Trump administration’s changing priorities, the Pentagon now has 12 warships in waters around the Caribbean, compared to just six in the Middle East, according to a Navy official cited by the newspaper. “And there’s no aircraft carrier ‘group’ in either the Middle East or Europe, since Trump ordered the transfer of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group from the Mediterranean to the Caribbean in October, in a clear departure from previous periods of tension with Tehran,” it is emphasized.
“Without an aircraft carrier and its related air wing, including fighter jets, helicopters, and electronic warfare aircraft, the number of military aircraft in the region is also limited to those allowed to be deployed at bases in other countries.” While US naval forces “are ready to operate anywhere in the world and do whatever is required of them… ultimately it’s about risk,” Admiral Daryl Caudle, head of naval operations, told reporters on Wednesday. “This constitutes a risk to the mission, can pose a risk to forces, and certainly a risk to objectives if unified force commanders don’t have the forces they need.”
The aircraft carrier reportedly leaving the South China Sea
This perhaps explains why, according to information broadcast by international media, a US aircraft carrier left the South China Sea after a live-fire exercise and is heading toward the Middle East. The American news network NewsNation reported Thursday that the Pentagon ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln and its carrier group, which includes Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, to leave their position in the South China Sea and sail toward the Middle East.
According to the US Naval Institute’s aircraft carrier tracker, as of Monday there were no US aircraft carriers deployed in the Middle East under US Central Command orders. The Abraham Lincoln was the closest to the region among all active aircraft carriers, operating in waters near Scarborough Shoal. It left its home port in San Diego in November and had been in the South China Sea since last month, operating for at least two weeks in the resource-rich maritime route claimed by various regional countries, as the South China Morning Post reminds us.
How the US could strike Iran
In any case, however, this doesn’t mean Washington cannot strike Tehran: The Pentagon could order Tomahawk missile attacks from destroyers deployed in the Middle East, as well as send fighter aircraft stationed in the region and bomber aircraft that can reach Iran from their bases in the US.
According to retired Lieutenant General David Deptula, who spoke to the Wall Street Journal, the US can use bases in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates to station fighters and other aircraft for attacks. Aircraft could also be sent from bases in Europe, including RAF Lakenheath in the United Kingdom, Aviano in Italy, and Spangdahlem in Germany, he said. “It doesn’t matter where the aircraft come from, but what they can do,” Deptula stated. Long-range bomber aircraft based in the US, for example, “can reach anywhere in the world in a few hours.”
The issue of protection from Iranian retaliation is also significant and pressing: Officials and experts argue to the WSJ that the US still has the ability to defend its forces in the region through other means, such as using Patriot missile systems and air defense systems from regional partners throughout the Middle East. On Monday, the US opened a new “coordination center” at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, aimed at enhancing their ability to integrate missile defense capabilities with regional partners.
The Gulf countries’ message to Washington and Tehran’s step back
Meanwhile, as the New York Times reports in their analysis, Trump’s powerful allies in the Arabian Gulf fear the consequences of a potential American attack on Iran, and some of them are publicly and privately pressuring his administration to choose diplomacy. Even Gulf governments that have been involved in indirect conflict with Iran — such as Iran’s regional rival, Saudi Arabia — do not support American military action there, according to analysts studying the region cited by the NYT.
On Wednesday, however, as a 24-hour period during which a possible strike was expected was completed, Trump stated that he was “told that the killings in Iran are stopping, they have stopped.” This may also be contributed to by Tehran’s potential step back, which announced that 26-year-old Erfan Soltani, the first protester reportedly ready to be executed for his participation in demonstrations, is not facing the death penalty.
