Negotiations to end the war in Ukraine are in full swing with a diplomatic solution as the backdrop, with Donald Trump sending optimistic messages, Kyiv trying to reduce the “burden” of a process that puts it under intense pressure, and Moscow investing in the direct channel it has steadily opened with Washington without rushing, taking as given its strong position in the next phase of the Eurasian chessboard.
After the groundbreaking developments brought by the alleged Russian-American 28-point plan, there is now a new 19-point plan on the table, although the critical element is missing: it appears to be two plans that primarily reflect the opposing “demands” of the warring parties, without convergence on the hot issues (territorial, security guarantees, general amnesty, Ukraine’s NATO membership, etc.). Russia continues to reap benefits on the battlefield, “betting” on its advantageous position, something Trump acknowledged as he departed for his Mar-a-Lago resort to spend Thanksgiving there.
The 19-point plan
appears to be… two
plans that primarily
reflect the opposing “demands” of the
warring parties, without
convergence on
the hot issues
Ukraine: Europe on a different wavelength – Military Schengen, “frozen” Russian assets and internal disagreements
Europeans, for their part, seem to be moving on a different wavelength, trying to cover the “lost time” (e.g., through the “Military Schengen” plan, which was mentioned in “P” last week), realizing that “alliances” are changing rapidly and “we don’t know how long they will last,” as German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on Wednesday (26/11). The “coalition of the willing” also mobilized as quickly as possible to avoid being left out of the processes (a “storm of processes,” after all, was what led to Geneva and a different draft for ending the war). Meanwhile, the issue of “frozen” Russian assets remains on the table, a matter that once again highlights differentiations in the European bloc (Belgium’s reaction is well known, being the seat of these capitals), while also leading to open confrontation once again between the EU and Moscow, in light of the liquidity problems Ukraine faces.
Putin’s moves: Hard line on occupied territories and “suggestive” stance on leadership change in Kyiv
In contrast, however, to the diplomatic fever recorded until last Sunday, when consultations in Geneva were completed, and against the backdrop of journalistic revelations causing turmoil (such as Bloomberg’s revelation about Steven Witkoff’s conversation with Yuri Ushakov), attention now turns to next week, as the pace seems to have “calmed down” (on the surface): After all, the American president traveled to Mar-a-Lago for Thanksgiving, while his Russian counterpart made a visit to Kyrgyzstan, showing he’s not in a hurry. At a press conference on Thursday, he once again made clear the steady Russian line on Ukraine, noting that Ukraine must withdraw from occupied territories, otherwise the goals will be achieved by military means, while he also brought back the argument for leadership change in Ukraine, showing that it seems difficult for Zelensky to sign any agreement on behalf of Kyiv. Regarding Steven Witkoff and his role (against the backdrop of the October 14 conversation, where he appeared to give advice on how Putin should deal with Trump, with the American president actually “freezing” the provision of Tomahawks to Ukraine that week), noteworthy is the common “line” of Washington and Moscow again against Europe: Trump defended him, telling reporters on Air Force One that “he has to be able to sell this deal to Ukraine. He has to be able to sell it to Russia too. That’s what a negotiator does,” while the Russian side also seems to photograph a “European finger” trying to undermine peace efforts.
Trump Jr’s intervention
Donald Trump Jr, for his part, (not the warmest friend of Kyiv) unleashed fierce criticism of Bloomberg’s report, stating in his Twitter post that “the idiots in the media and deep state seem like they’ve never successfully negotiated a deal in the real world,” while adding that “it’s obvious that almost all of Witkoff’s critics want any peace deal for Ukraine to fail, so they can continue this war without stopping,” a view shared by Kirill Dmitriev on his own account, with the one-word note “True.” It should be noted that Dmitriev heads the Russian Direct Investment Fund and is perhaps Moscow’s most important channel with Washington, given his education in the US. In Europe, on the other hand, the stance on Witkoff seems completely different, with an official telling Politico that “he needs a psychiatrist,” while Republican and Democratic legislators were calling for his “dismissal,” launching attacks that he’s a “Russian agent.” Against this backdrop, Trump seems to want to close a new peace agreement as quickly as possible, after the corresponding one in Gaza, and Kyiv, for its part, to stand “upright,” amid the ongoing corruption scandal that creates serious issues of stability and legitimacy for the Zelensky government.
Certainly, it wasn’t a positive development that Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s top negotiator, was examined as a witness in the biggest corruption scandal “sweeping” the country, with key figure businessman Timur Mindich and the $100 million bribery case related to the state nuclear energy company. In the same vein, serious issues are also created by the investigation of Ukrainian authorities against Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, with a search conducted in his office on Friday morning. This is a key figure in peace negotiations who participated in the Geneva talks, while a few hours before the news was announced, Yermak had given an interview to American “The Atlantic,” where he characteristically said that “no sane person would sign a document that would surrender territories,” noting that it “contradicts the Constitution” of the country.
Published in Parapolitika
