The intense pressure faced by Kyriakos Mitsotakis from MPs, ministers, and his associates for an early election, according to all sources, has fallen on deaf ears. Now the main scenarios reportedly on the table at Maximos Mansion for elections are two: this October and March 2027.
The scenario of early elections in May
Early elections within May, as a way of “fleeing forward” amid the OPEKEPE investigations and developments in the wiretapping case, have been ruled out, mainly because the prime minister wants to continue projecting the political “card” of stability and institutional consistency, and because he considers such a move would be irresponsible amid the Middle East war.
Justice and Recovery Fund at the center
However, there are other events on the government’s “radar” in the coming months. In June, new leadership will be selected and appointed for the Supreme Court, as Chief Prosecutor Konstantinos Tzavellas and Supreme Court President Anastasia Papadopoulou retire. Meanwhile, the next five months are absolutely critical and decisive for absorbing European Union Recovery and Resilience Fund resources. The European Commission recently announced its positive preliminary assessment of Greece’s double payment request submitted last December, worth 1.18 billion euros from the Recovery Fund, paving the way for disbursement of the double request, bringing total disbursements to 24.58 billion euros.
This means that within the coming months, all ministries, organizations and agencies must run a marathon at sprint pace to achieve absorption – in loans and funding – of the remaining 11 billion euros approximately that our country is entitled to from the Recovery Fund.
TIF: The possible springboard for October elections
On the evening of September 5th, however, all this will be completed and the prime minister will deliver his speech at the Vellidio Conference Center, within the framework of the 90th Thessaloniki International Fair. There, “armed” with a surplus that may exceed 2 billion euros, he can announce a generous package of benefits and relief measures for households and businesses, creating a more favorable political environment for himself and the ruling party for elections within October.
The second scenario is what Mr. Mitsotakis described publicly once again, this time in his recent television message. “The country will defeat whatever comes from yesterday and holds it back. And its course from now on will be only forward, with the first and decisive milestone being the 2027 elections,” was his concluding phrase.
Within the coming months, ministries, organizations and agencies must rush to absorb the remaining approximately 11 billion from the Recovery Fund
The 2027 election scenario remains strong
Why, however, is the March scenario currently the most likely for the ’27 elections? On July 1, 2027, our country takes over from Lithuania and officially assumes the six-month rotating presidency of the European Union Council. A critical presidency for economic, energy, defense and geopolitical issues, which may be called upon to handle even the final stage of definitively planning the EU’s next multiannual financial framework for 2028-2035. Therefore, whatever government emerges from the polls must be sworn in, have received a confidence vote from Parliament, and have sufficient time ahead to make the necessary preparation and required consultations with Brussels, as well as with the outgoing Lithuanian presidency, to adequately respond to its increased duties.
Essentially, then, a period sufficient to do all this in an organized and methodical way is at least two months – from the confidence vote until the day the Greek presidency begins. However, based on all recent polls, New Democracy is first but not self-sufficient, while under present conditions a coalition government seems extremely difficult to form. Therefore, a likely scenario is that a few days after the next elections, a senior judge will be called to assume the role of caretaker prime minister and lead the country to the polls again four weeks later.
Since, therefore, there is a serious possibility that two consecutive electoral contests will be needed to form a government that enjoys Parliament’s confidence (some analysts speak of even three, potentially), March is the month with the required safe time distance from July 1st and the start of Greece’s EU presidency.
Published in Parapolitika
