The reappearance of Alexis Tsipras on the political scene will certainly trigger a series of reactions in the center-left and left-wing camp, the limits of which, at this stage, are difficult to assess. Polling data describes a potential electoral audience of around 20% for Mr. Tsipras, with possible reserves coming mainly from SYRIZA and New Left. However, the measurements also detect a percentage of PASOK voters around 10%, of which 3% declare it very likely to follow Mr. Tsipras in his new venture.
The threat to PASOK from Alexis Tsipras: from the battle for first place to the battle for… second place
The percentages may seem and be small, but essentially, PASOK at the stage it finds itself has no margin for losses in any direction, in order to achieve the declared goal of first place that would make it a regulator of developments. The danger, therefore, for PASOK is that the struggle for first place becomes a battle with Mr. Tsipras for capturing second place and the role of main opposition that it already holds.
How the political duopoly of New Democracy – PASOK gives advantage to Androulakis
In the consciousness of the electorate, the political duopoly has already been formed and concerns the opposition between New Democracy and PASOK. This constitutes the comparative advantage of the main opposition party, which, even in limited percentages, is established as the alternative pole of power. This is the role that Alexis Tsipras will attempt to capture as a first step and this is what PASOK must protect, first fortifying its own audience and proceeding to expand toward electoral bases that now appear particularly dissatisfied with government policies.
The left-leaning audience is recorded as reserved toward PASOK and claiming it will become an even more difficult exercise with the official political descent of Tsipras’s party, a fact that significantly limits potential reserves and makes it essential for PASOK to communicate thoroughly an elaborate programmatic plan with realistic mapping of the existing situation and the solutions proposed for addressing the problems that citizens experience daily.
PASOK and Nikos Androulakis are classified by the majority of citizens, whether they agree or disagree with their positions, among the serious political forces of the country that with moderation, realism but also visionary approach can play a leading role in the political change that 70% of Greek society desires. The challenge for PASOK is to choose the right opponent and not be consumed in a disorienting dispute with the past. Because, fortunately or unfortunately, citizens are not so interested in what happened ten years ago but in what will happen in the next ten.
*Published in “Karfi”
