February is expected to end with lower than usual temperatures for the season, while March will begin with a temporary cold snap before mercury levels rise above normal, according to meteorologist Giorgos Tsatrafyllias. As he points out, current forecast data shows no significant rainfall, with estimates based on ensemble analysis for Athens, Thessaloniki and Heraklion, which capture multiple possible weather development scenarios and the uncertainty level of predictions.
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Giorgos Tsatrafyllias’ post on weather developments
“February bids us farewell with a bit more cold…”
Good afternoon!
👉March will start with slightly cooler than normal temperatures, however afterwards and for several days mercury will be found slightly above normal levels. Also, rainfall will not be significant.
👉We get this information from ensembles (a set of multiple forecast scenarios) for Athens, Thessaloniki and Heraklion.
✅Ensembles constitute a forecasting system where the same numerical model runs multiple times, with very small variations in the initial atmospheric conditions.
✅It’s known that the atmosphere is a chaotic system. Small differences in initial state (temperature, pressure, humidity, wind) can lead to different weather evolution after a few days.
✅To assess this natural uncertainty, we don’t use just one forecast (deterministic run), but many parallel executions.
Each of these executions is called a member.
The ensemble of members shows us:
📌The basic weather trend (mean value – ensemble mean)
📌The range of possible scenarios
📌The uncertainty level (the greater the dispersion, the greater the uncertainty)
👉When most members converge, the forecast is considered more reliable. When they diverge significantly, uncertainty increases.
🎯This way we can have a more realistic picture of temperature trends or possible changes over several days, instead of relying on just one model execution.
