One of the hottest years in history appears to be 2026, according to weather forecasts from international organizations. Specifically, this assessment was published by the UK Met Office and is based on recent studies that reveal a continuous increase in global average temperature, with values exceeding previous records, reinforcing the urgent need to limit global warming and the serious impacts of climate change worldwide.
Read: Weather review for 2025: Higher than normal temperatures for most months of the year (Maps)
Weather: What the UN reports on temperature rise and its connection to human activities
The temperature rise is directly linked to human activities and greenhouse gas emissions, according to the United Nations (UN): “The main greenhouse gases causing climate change are carbon dioxide and methane. They come, for example, from using gasoline for cars or burning coal for heating buildings.” The forecasts for 2026 present new challenges in the effort of states to meet their commitments in international agreements, such as the Paris Agreement, which has the primary goal of preventing temperature increases above critical thresholds.
What will be the average temperature in 2026
The published report estimates that the global average temperature in 2026 will reach 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900), with a range of possible values from 1.34°C to 1.58°C. This is a value slightly below the record of 1.55°C recorded in 2024, the highest to date. The Met Office emphasizes that the forecast “suggests that 2026 is likely to be one of the four warmest years recorded in global average temperature.” Global temperature observations began in 1850 and demonstrate an intense upward trend in recent decades. Adam Scaife, head of the Met Office’s global forecasting team, explained: “The last three years have likely exceeded 1.4°C and we expect 2026 to be the fourth consecutive year this happens. Before this sudden increase, global temperature had not exceeded 1.3°C.”
The data confirms that 2026 will continue the series of years with particularly high temperatures. Nick Dunstone, chief meteorologist, noted: “2024 recorded the first temporary exceedance of 1.5°C and the forecast for 2026 shows it is likely to be repeated. This underlines how quickly we are approaching the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement.”
This is the goal of the Paris Agreement
The Paris Agreement, approved in 2015 at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21), sets the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2°C, with efforts to limit it further to 1.5°C. The agreement entered into force in November 2016 and today has 194 participants, including countries and the European Union. The agreement’s framework requires states to review every five years their national plans for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and strengthening adaptation to climate change impacts. These plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), include emission reduction policies as well as resilience strategies for extreme weather events. Additionally, the agreement provides financing to developing countries for addressing climate change and establishes transparency mechanisms for monitoring and evaluating commitments. The UN emphasizes that “the agreement provides a lasting framework for guiding global efforts for decades” and signals the beginning of the transition to a net-zero emissions world.
Warnings from the scientific community
The scientific community warns that exceeding the 1.5°C threshold increases the risk of serious climate change impacts and limits adaptation capabilities. The Met Office notes that even temporary exceedance worsens consequences and makes it harder to limit damage.
What the World Meteorological Organization reports
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that the current level of warming is 1.37°C above the 1850-1900 average, based on data from the last decade and projections for the period 2015-2034. According to the Met Office, “science has repeatedly warned that exceeding 1.5°C leads to increased extreme weather events and limits adaptation capabilities.” The review process established by the Paris Agreement aims to encourage more ambitious measures to keep warming below agreed limits. In 2023, the first “global stocktake” assessed progress and urged states to strengthen their actions to avoid exceeding agreed temperatures. Implementation of the agreement is crucial not only for achieving climate goals, but also for the Sustainable Development Goals, which include emission reductions and increased resilience to environmental challenges.
