Scope Ratings, the German rating agency, maintained Greece at the BBB grade as expected, but upgraded its outlook to positive, signaling a future upgrade as a result of good fiscal practices and the resilience demonstrated by the Greek economy. On the flip side, Scope Ratings identifies challenges including high debt, structural growth constraints, and persistent external deficits.
In its report accompanying the assessment of the Greek economy and the outlook upgrade to positive (from stable), it notes that “the Greek economy has shown steady growth and resilience to shocks in recent years, with growth of around 2% in 2025 and outperformance relative to most eurozone peers.” It also highlights that strong domestic demand, dynamic tourism, and EU-funded investments through the Recovery Fund continue to support growth, while reforms in public administration, taxation, and the labor market enhance competitiveness. Regarding the banking sector, it emphasizes that it has been further strengthened, reinforcing financial stability.
Concerning debt, it notes there is a “strong dynamic” in its management, supported by “prudent fiscal management.” More specifically, Greece’s public finances continue to exceed fiscal targets, with a general government surplus of around 0.6% of GDP and a primary surplus near 3.6% projected for 2025. At the same time, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline from around 145% in 2025 to 122% in 2030, thanks to “conservative budgeting” and strong revenue performance.
The Scope Ratings report also references the fiscal “cushion” of approximately 42 billion euros (about 17% of GDP), while the “debt structure” (long duration and low cost) works beneficially.
What Scope Ratings will monitor
The German rating agency notes it will monitor:
* Continued adherence to fiscal discipline,
* progress on structural reforms to support investment and productivity,
* ongoing efforts to reduce external imbalances, as well as
* sustained improvement in banking sector performance.
As it states, these factors will be decisive for maintaining Greece’s positive momentum in credit assessment. Conversely, challenges for the Greek rating include:
* A very high public debt stock, which remains a long-term “thorn” despite its declining trajectory
* Structural constraints on medium-term growth, such as limited economic diversification and adverse demographic trends
* External imbalances, given persistent current account deficits and financial sector challenges, reflecting the close state-bank relationship and the large stock of non-performing loans managed by servicers.
It should be noted that Scope was the first among major rating agencies to grant investment grade status to Greece in August 2023.
