A plan to increase retirement age limits after 2027 by 1.5 to 2 years (63.5 with 40 years of service and 68.5 for full pension) is being developed by the economic team, prompted by an actuarial study currently being prepared that is expected to show an increase in life expectancy in the country.
The initiative stems from the demographic problem across all European states, as aging is significantly outpacing births, and the changes being made—here as well—are connected to protecting the pension system and ensuring adequate pensions.
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At a recent conference in Athens, where among others the OECD’s chief economist Álvaro Pereira spoke, alarm bells were raised about population aging, which appears as a threat and cost to society.
He called on European states to prepare early for the “new realities” in sectors such as Health, Education, and the labor market.
Demographic Developments Observatory
Longevity is not just a challenge. It is a unique opportunity for a new social contract, emphasized Social Cohesion and Family Minister Domna Michailidou at the same conference.
She also announced the upcoming establishment and operation of the Demographic Developments Observatory, an institution that will monitor demographic trends and formulate evidence-based policy proposals at national and local levels.
She also noted that linking life expectancy after age 65 with retirement age serves as a safety valve to prevent future explosion of the Social Security system due to increased pension expenditures.
When—and as—life expectancy rises, retirement age limits will increase accordingly, meaning insured individuals will remain as workers for more years and retire later.
Retirement: Review of age limits at the end of 2026
In Greece, retirement age limits will be reviewed at the end of 2026, as from 2027 their linkage to life expectancy for individuals over 65 will be implemented for the first time. Following Denmark’s model, those who have passed age 55 may be exempt from changes, while younger insured individuals up to 55 years old may be affected by increased retirement age limits.
The average retirement age in Greece is 59.7 years for women and 63.2 years for men, while the OECD average is 63.1 years for women and 64.4 years for men.
The OECD recommends linking life expectancy with age limits, and for Greece, this can be implemented using one of three parameters below:
- 1 to 1 ratio.
- 1 to 2/3 ratio.
- 1 to 1/3 ratio.
A 1 to 1 ratio means that for every year the average lifespan after age 65 increases, age limits will increase by one year.
A 1 to 2/3 ratio means age limit increases will evolve at moderate speed—for every year life expectancy increases, age limits will increase by eight months, while a 1 to 1/3 ratio would mean age limit increases of four months.
Three demographic indicators that will determine if and how much age limits will increase
In Greece, linking the life expectancy index for individuals over 65 with age limits was voted into law in 2010 with insurance law 3863/2010, providing for age limit adjustments every three years from 2021 onwards. The first adjustment for 2021 was not implemented due to the pandemic and numerous deaths, which resulted in maintaining the same ratio. The second was for 2024, but no changes were made, and now the next milestone is 2027. Changes are planned to be implemented gradually from 2028 to 2030.
Three demographic indicators will determine if and how much age limits will increase:
- The dependency ratio of elderly over 65 to the economically active population, heading toward 60% from today’s 39%.
- The aging index, which is increasing, as for every 170 elderly over 65, there are 100 young people of working age to replace them.
- The fertility index, which may have improved marginally from 1.3 children in 2018 to 1.5 children in 2022, but falls short of the 2.1 rate in developed countries. Low birth rates constitute the number one problem, evident in the birth-to-death ratio, which remains in deficit.
National Actuarial Authority
The recent study by the National Actuarial Authority shows that by 2030, today’s legislated age limits of 62 and 67 years will increase by 1.5 years.
If age limit increases occur gradually, insured individuals who turn 62 in 2027 may retire at age 62.6, and those turning 62 in 2028 may retire at 62.9 years. By 2040 it will have increased to 64.5 years, by 2050 to 65.5, by 2060 it will reach 66.7 years, and by 2070 to 67.5.
Life expectancy at birth for men increases from 78.8 years in 2022 to 86.5 years in 2070, and for women increases from 84.2 years in 2022 to 90.4 years in 2070.
Published in MoneyPro of Parapolitika