Significant impacts are expected for Europe from the trade agreement with the USA. The tariff was set at 15% (with the exception of steel, aluminum and copper, which are at 50%), with American tariffs also affecting Greek product exports to the US (i.e., olive oil, feta cheese, peaches). In this direction, the Greek government is oriented towards focusing on new markets (India, Middle East) in order to absorb Greek products, since their competitiveness in the American market is reduced as a result of higher shelf prices.
Trump tariffs: Brussels oriented towards new negotiations
Brussels is oriented towards new negotiations with Washington so that there are exemptions for specific PDO products. However, since these discussions will not take place on a bilateral level (i.e., each member state separately), the Greek government’s room for maneuver is reduced in being able to “lock in” certain exemptions for PDO products, building on the very good Greek-American relations. It should be noted that Greek exports to the US reached 2.4 billion euros in 2024, while imports from the other side of the Atlantic were 2.16 billion euros, with the balance remaining in surplus.
However, the new American tariffs directly hit the competitiveness of Greek products, as price increases are expected to compress demand and limit sales, thus affecting the trade balance with the US. Under the agreement, 15% tariffs are imposed on most European exports to the US from August 7th. Exemptions concern certain products (e.g., pharmaceuticals, likely to be implemented from 2027), while other tariffs, such as on steel, aluminum and copper, remain at 50%. It should be noted that the EU committed to increase imports of American goods and investments in the US, with the total package amounting to $600 billion. At the same time, there is also Brussels’ commitment to absorb energy products (see LNG) worth $750 billion from the US.
Direct cost for European economy at 0.5%
Deutsche Bank estimates that the direct cost for the European economy reaches 0.5% of GDP, with countries heavily dependent on exports – such as Ireland, Germany, Slovakia and Denmark – being hit harder. Conversely, France and Spain are expected to be less affected. Analysts point out that at the country level, Ireland, Germany, Italy, France and the Netherlands are among those most exposed to
tariffs, because their exports to the US in 2024, in value terms, were very high (Germany: 161.2 billion euros, Ireland: 72.1 billion euros, Italy: 64.8 billion euros, France: 47.1 billion euros, Netherlands 43.4 billion euros). At the sector level, impacts are expected to be uneven, mainly due to structural differences in their markets, such as the degree of dependence on American markets. Pharmaceutical products, automotive industry, machinery and equipment constitute the sectors with the highest export activity to the US. This means that countries exporting these goods to the US, such as Ireland, Belgium and Germany, face disproportionate risks.
*Published in Parapolitika newspaper
