Although Greece is among the European countries that received official notification from the United States regarding the imposition of new reciprocal tariffs, UBS estimates that the impact on the Greek economy will be relatively mild. According to the investment bank’s analysis, the impact on GDP is expected to be limited to just 0.15 percentage points in 2026, when the effect of the tariffs will be fully integrated.
The US government’s proposal to impose 30% tariffs on the European Union translates to an effective tariff rate of 20%-23% for Greece, almost triple the current levels. Despite this, UBS is not changing its existing forecasts for Greek economic growth, as negotiations between the EU and US are still ongoing and the final framework has not been finalized.
UBS: About 60%-75% of Greek exports to the US are subject to reciprocal tariffs
Regarding Greece’s overall exposure to US trade, UBS emphasizes that approximately 60%-75% of Greek exports to the US are subject to reciprocal tariffs, one of the highest percentages among Eastern European and Middle Eastern countries. However, due to the relatively small share of these exports in Greek GDP, the overall negative impact is considered limited.
In a scenario of a 10% tariff increase, UBS calculates that the additional burden for Greece would be 15-20 basis points (0.15%-0.20%). This assessment places Greece in the same vulnerability category as Poland, but in a better position compared to Hungary and the Czech Republic, where the impacts would be more severe.
The UBS report notes that while short-term impacts are manageable, the future trajectory of the Greek economy will largely depend on whether trade tensions de-escalate or escalate further. Any prolonged or more aggressive trade policies from the US could hurt not only exports but also the investment climate, increasing external risks for smaller open economies like Greece.
