Bitcoin has soared to a new all-time high above $118,000, marking gains of over 6% in the last 24 hours. Despite the spectacular rise, on-chain data suggests the market is not in an overheated state and shows room for further growth.
During previous peaks in March and December 2024, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) index had shot above 2.7, indicating intense speculation. In contrast, today’s rally is accompanied by a more moderate MVRV reading of 2.2, reflecting a more stable and mature market.
According to CryptoQuant, short-term holders (under one month) comprise just 15% of the market, compared to over 30% during previous peaks. This shows that capital inflows are more cautious and investment behavior is more mature, with accumulation strategies instead of immediate profit-taking.
The SOPR index for short-term holders confirms that recent buyers are not selling aggressively but maintaining a mild stance, restraining price pressure. The SOPR index measures whether coin movements are executed at profit or loss, providing significant insight into investor psychology.
Meanwhile, the Miner Position Index (MPI) continues its downward trajectory. Many mining companies are choosing to accumulate Bitcoin instead of liquidating, contrary to previous bull cycles where price increases led to mass selling.
CryptoQuant emphasizes that today’s rally appears to be supported by institutional investors and sovereign capital, rather than retail investors with short-term goals. This creates conditions for a more structural, long-term bull cycle. The restrained behavior extends to the movement of coins to exchanges, which remains subdued, showing that most investors are not planning immediate sales despite the price increase.
Traders stay in position despite Bitcoin’s rise
Bitcoin has posted nearly 20% price gains from the local bottom of June 22nd, however traders are not rushing to move cryptocurrency back to exchanges, according to Santiment.
Instead, holders continue to move Bitcoin to self-custody wallets. In just the last four months, exchange balances have decreased by 315,830 BTC, or 21%. The five-year picture is even more significant.
Since July 2020, 1.88 million Bitcoin have been removed from exchanges, reducing balances by 61%. With fewer coins on exchanges, sudden mass sell-offs become less likely. This means long-term investors are choosing personal storage over potential short-term trading.
Despite the historic highs, some analysts warn that potential new tariff increases or geopolitical shocks could change the dynamics. However, the current phase appears to be based less on speculation and more on institutional and geoeconomic fundamentals.
