Piraeus Securities sees optimistic prospects for GEK TERNA shares, upgrading the target price to €31, which implies an upside potential of approximately 50%. The revision is based on the strategic partnership with Motor Oil in the energy sector, the significant valuation of concessions reaching €2.3 billion, and the company’s consistently strong presence in the construction sector. Analysts characterize GEK TERNA as an attractive infrastructure player with dynamic growth both in Greece and internationally.
Piraeus Securities on GEK TERNA: Target price at €31 with 50% upside potential
Specifically, Piraeus Securities is proceeding with an upgrade of GEK TERNA’s target price, raising it to €31.0 (from €25.20 previously), following the upgrade of the energy portfolio after the strategic deal with Motor Oil, the new valuation of the concessions portfolio now amounting to €2.3 billion, and the strong profitability of construction. According to the brokerage’s latest analysis, GEK TERNA remains an attractive investment opportunity in the European infrastructure sector, with significant upside potential, following its large project portfolio in Greece and expansion opportunities abroad.
In a significant strategic development for the domestic electricity market, GEK TERNA and Motor Oil announced the merger of their energy activities into a new 50/50 scheme. The new company will operate as a vertically integrated utility, running 3 power plants with combined capacity of 1.7 GW and holding a 15.5% market share (June 2025), making it the third largest player in the market.
According to analysts, for GEK TERNA the Sum Of The Parts valuation exercise gives a value of €3.2 billion (after a 10% holding discount) leading to a target price of €31.0 per share. The value of concessions is estimated at €2.3 billion, of which €1.8 billion comes from highways (excluding BOAK) and with the value of the stake in Attiki Odos (90%) amounting to €974 million. Construction is valued at €0.87 billion following strong cash flows and high-quality backlog. Finally, the energy sector is valued at €0.6 billion after the strategic deal with Motor Oil.
In terms of estimates, total sales for 2025 are expected at €3.5 billion with EBITDA at €605 million and net profit at €136 million. For 2026 (consolidating the energy sector using the equity method), sales are estimated at €2.4 billion, with EBITDA at €612 million and net profit at €195 million. For 2028-29, the Group’s EBITDA is estimated at approximately €800 million and net profit at approximately €300 million.
Regarding liquidity, total receipts of the parent company from the three main activities for the period 2025-31 are estimated at €2 billion, with over 50% coming from concession projects, with their contribution increasing as projects mature. Meanwhile, investments (equity) are estimated at €1 billion for the same period, with the parent company’s cash available standing near €0.4 billion for the first years and exceeding €1 billion from 2030, when Egnatia Odos and IRC projects will begin contributing.
