A report by S&P Global Ratings states that the lower-than-expected performance of Metlen Energy & Metals‘ energy sector for the entirety of 2025 will not have an immediate impact on the company’s “BB+” issuer credit rating or its stable outlook at this stage. Specifically, it is estimated that the 2025 issues were temporary and are already reflected, with the resulting costs considered one-off rather than a structural problem.
Metlen: Strong medium-term growth outlook
The group’s medium-term growth outlook remains strong, as does its strategic asset rotation and project pipeline, with any delays in asset sales considered credit neutral. Additionally, according to S&P, Metlen’s track record of project completion in recent years has been strong. This supports the assessment that recent deviations from targets are temporary.
More specifically, S&P Global Ratings notes in its report that on February 6, 2026, Metlen revised its EBITDA forecast 25% lower than initial estimates. This revision is attributed to:
Delays in completing transactions under the asset rotation plan. Cost overruns and schedule extensions in several engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects.
S&P now estimates adjusted EBITDA of approximately €750 million, corresponding to a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of about 4.0 times for 2025, significantly higher than the 2.0x it considers compatible with the company’s current rating. Previously, this ratio was expected between 2.0x and 2.5x.
Due to the nature of the increase, S&P estimates that the ratio will decline close to 2.0x already in 2026 and return comfortably below that level in 2027-2028.
“Execution risk is a key characteristic of the EPC sector,” S&P emphasizes. “The company has recorded strong performance in recent years and the recent cost overruns -including the Protos waste-to-energy plant project in the United Kingdom- are considered isolated and fully reflected in 2025 EBITDA results,” it adds. Meanwhile, it notes that according to the base scenario, no further deviations are expected in the short term, as:
All projects have been reviewed and placed under strict monitoring, while the number affected is limited.
Strong project control and lower execution risk in the future
The company has focused in recent years on solar projects, energy storage systems, and grid projects, which are considered less complex and with lower execution risk.
Most conventional power generation projects, as well as Protos, are expected to become operational in 2026 and some in 2027, reducing the risk of new cost overruns.
“Delays in transactions are considered credit neutral,” it comments. Three renewable energy portfolio sales expected for 2025 were postponed. One of the two major transactions -the sale of a 283 MW solar portfolio in the United Kingdom- was completed earlier this month, while the other, concerning projects in Australia, negotiations continue and is estimated to be completed within the year. Additionally, a significant portion of the asset rotation plan projects has already been pre-sold, which “locks in” prices and buyers and limits related risk.
The potential acquisition of the Aluminium Dunkerque aluminum smelter in France could be a decisive development.
“According to reports, the price could reach €1 billion, with EBITDA of €300-350 million. However, other major groups are also among those interested, while it remains unclear whether Metlen can complete the acquisition and how it would finance it,” S&P states.
If completed, the company’s aluminum portfolio would be significantly strengthened and, combined with organic growth, EBITDA could increase medium-term to €1.8-2.0 billion, possibly leading to a reassessment of its business position.
“Nevertheless, the margin for rating upgrade remains limited. Significant increase in borrowing, either due to major acquisitions or higher investments, could slow deleveraging and lead to negative assessment. Achieving medium-term EBITDA targets and generating positive free cash flows is considered crucial, with S&P closely monitoring the implementation progress of the company’s ‘Big Three’ plan”.
