“Ithaca” will be the title of Alexis Tsipras’ book, to be presented in the second half of November, giving him the opportunity to conduct informal tours across Greece through related events that will be indirectly but clearly connected to the establishment of his political party. Since the party has not yet been officially founded, it cannot be measured in polling voting intentions. However, the potential vote for a Tsipras party shows whether he has wind in his sails to reach his political Ithaca, aiming to become Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ formidable opponent and fill the opposition void.
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Results from three polls on a Tsipras party
Three polls in one week are sufficient to largely capture the dynamic potential of an upcoming Tsipras venture. In GPO’s poll for Parapolitika 90.1, the potential vote for a Tsipras party reaches 20.2%, with 9.1% responding they would very likely vote for it and 11.1% saying it’s quite likely. In Opinion Poll’s survey for Action 24, the potential vote for a Tsipras party reaches 26.1%, though only 8.6% declare they would definitely vote for it and 17.5% say they could. Similarly, in MRB’s poll for Open, the potential vote for a Tsipras party reaches 21.8%.
Pollsters unanimously agree that potential vote as a polling indicator does not constitute voting intention, but rather potential possibility. For a party to be included in voting intentions, it must be officially established. With this data, the glass is currently half-full for Alexis Tsipras. The former prime minister has a solid percentage of around 9% on average who would definitely vote for him, but the remaining voters include him in their options without being certain they would ultimately vote for him. It’s characteristic that PASOK’s potential vote exceeds 30% while the party currently polls around 14%. Similarly, New Left had high potential vote exceeding 10% when founded, but its current percentage is much lower, below the parliamentary threshold.
Main voter reservoirs and warning signals
Currently, the main voter reservoirs for Alexis Tsipras are SYRIZA, which essentially absorbs almost all his supporters, Course of Freedom, where about 42.3% of voters according to Opinion Poll would consider voting for the party, and PASOK, where 15.8% leave open the possibility of supporting it. A warning signal for the former prime minister is that as he moves more officially, he creates opposing reflexes. The percentage of those declaring they definitely would not vote for a party under his leadership increases after his resignation from parliament. Pollsters emphasize that existing anti-SYRIZA reflexes, as described in the past, are being activated.
Meanwhile, alongside the former prime minister’s book, his ongoing contacts continue. Regarding party officials, most SYRIZA MPs, except those connected to dark pages of his governance, will find his door open. A key challenge for him will be the new generation of officials without political background who will be exclusively associated with Alexis Tsipras’ rebranding and comeback.
