The “president” of the pseudo-state Ersin Tatar characterized tomorrow’s elections as a referendum on the Cyprus issue. Approximately 218,000 “voters” (20,000 more than in 2020, including many recent settlers) are called to choose one of eight candidates for “president” of the pseudo-state. However, the election battle is dominated by two candidates: independent Ersin Tatar and Republican Turkish Party representative Tufan Erhurman. Although Ankara’s chosen candidate is Tatar, Tufan Erhurman maintains some – albeit small – chances of victory. Early polls gave him the lead, however in recent days the two contenders appear with a small margin between them.
Occupied territories: Is Erdogan’s pick Ersin Tatar at risk from moderate Tufan Erhurman?
Tomorrow’s process in the occupied territories could signal developments in the Cyprus issue if Ankara’s influence ultimately does not demonstrate the power it appears to have in the “pseudo-state.” Ersin Tatar, who maintains strong ties with the Turkish President, openly advocates for a two-state solution in Cyprus and stubbornly torpedoes any United Nations negotiation attempts. As he stated to the Turkish news agency Anadolu, over the past five years he managed to bring the two-state solution policy to the world’s agenda and that this policy has been recognized by the international community with the support of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
On the other hand, Tufan Erhurman supports a federal state solution, because as he says it would resolve the dispute with Greek Cypriots and would bring Turkish Cypriots out of isolation and poverty. Erhurman is not featured in Turkish media. Instead, current “president” Ersin Tatar speaks in interviews, giving his own version of the solution his opponent proposes. “Within the framework of a possible federal model, relations with Turkish Cypriots could gradually change negatively, because Turkey is not an EU member.” As Ersin Tatar argued in the same interview, such a course could lead to conditions that would force Turkey to withdraw from the island and revoke its status as a guarantor power, while efforts to exclude Turkey from the Eastern Mediterranean would intensify.
Turkish media are giving extensive coverage to tomorrow’s elections. It should be noted that if the two leading candidates do not gather 50%+1 votes, as their electoral system requires, there will be a runoff round next Sunday, October 26. The outcome will also determine the date for conducting the next five-party meeting at the United Nations on the Cyprus issue. British High Commissioner to Cyprus Michael Tatham supported, in an interview, that “Cyprus reunification is feasible and necessary” and that the United Kingdom, as one of the guarantor powers, remains committed to UN diplomatic efforts.
