Despite repeated warnings about the demographic crisis, the forecast from Vyron Kotzamanis, Director of the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies, remains deeply troubling. Speaking on ERT, he stated that population decline is inevitable — particularly given that those born between 1955 and 1960 had an average of two children, while those born between 1980 and 1985 are set to complete their reproductive years with just 1.4. He further warned that a significant drop in births is expected in Greece after 2045, unless a genuinely supportive environment for families and children is established. Kotzamanis identified 1980 as the pivotal turning point when birth rates first began to fall sharply.
Demographic crisis: Family support policies
Vyron Kotzamanis considers shifts in lifestyle, urbanization, longer time spent in education, women’s increased participation in the workforce, and difficulties in professional establishment to be secondary factors compared to the family support policies that states implement. As he explained, this is a common denominator across many European countries. However, he pointed out that in countries such as Sweden, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium, robust family support policies have contributed to significantly different demographic outcomes. “Greece has never had a truly supportive environment for families and children,” he stressed, noting that the country failed to take the necessary measures in time to address the consequences of sweeping social and economic changes.
Nearly twice as many deaths as births
He spoke of a stark demographic imbalance, noting that annual births stand at approximately 65,000 while deaths reach 124,000. According to Kotzamanis, bridging that gap would require a fertility rate of 2.4 children per woman — a level not recorded in any developed country today. He also noted that even if younger couples begin having more children, the negative natural population change cannot be reversed quickly, as the generations now entering reproductive age are numerically far smaller than those before them.
The next two decades are expected to pass relatively smoothly; however, after 2045, a new and significant decline may occur, as the small generations born during the 2020s will reach childbearing age by then.
In closing, he emphasized that creating a genuinely supportive environment for families and child-rearing is a fundamental prerequisite for limiting the effects of demographic shrinkage — even if an overall population decline can no longer be avoided.
Read the EU Commission’s Ageing Report 2027 here.
